We have all had the negative experience of betting for the favorite player, only to see that quotes go through the roof just before the match. The match hasn’t even begun, but you already know that you will lose that bet. In those cases, protecting yourself betting for the adversary player will not be interesting, as quotes are already too low by the time you realize what is going on.
In most occasions when this kind of abrupt quote movements happen, the match is won by the player whose quote has suddenly dropped. Even so, it is not a good idea to bet large quantities of money to that player because we can also suffer an “snowball effect”: a player with a previous history of match-fixing starts experiencing a sudden rise of the quotes. This is noticed by punters who start thinking that the match is fixed, bringing quotes higher. The more those quotes raise, the more the market will think that there is something fishy going on. In this case, movement in the quotes, even normal movements generated by the market, will generate additional movements in the same direction. The player whose quotes were raising wins the match, and punters that bet based on suspicion of match-fixing will lose their capital. We can also find the situation when punters with enough liquidity try to generate this initial movement to take advantage of the lower quotes.
In summary, professionals from the betting industry are very aware that match-fixing is a common practice, as pointed our recently by BBC and BuzzFeed News report. The main problem for law enforcers is to prove the existence of match-fixing, even if there are clear indications that something is going on.
The following chart shows the evolution of the “pre-match” quotes between Pere Riba and Jan Hajek, a match played on October 25th 2010 during the 1st round of the ATP250 Tournament in Vienna. Any punter specialized in tennis would argue that this match didn’t have a clear favorite (the first transaction on Betfair was completed at 1.85-1.90 levels favorable to Hajek). But quotes started to go down slowly until reaching the 1.07 level before the match begun (a 1.07 quote represents a possibility of 93.5% on that direction). As expected, Hajek won the match with a result of 6-0, 6-2. Some people had privileged information, and used that information to bet against the Spaniard. During that match, it was also surprising to see the hundreds of thousands of euro negotiated on Betfair before the beginning of the match – a surprising fact for the 1st round of a minor tournament. This is the evolution of the quotes until the match started:
Even if we tend to think otherwise, not so many professional tennis players make large sums of money during the season. Ernst Gulbis, currently world number 79 and former Top 10, recently made the following statement: “last season I made 600.000 dollars, and I spent them all on my coaching team and operational costs. Players with no sponsors are very limited financially as they can’t afford to hire the basic team (coach and physiotherapist). In order for me to cover all my costs I would need to enter the Top 5. Only after leaving professional tennis, some players start making some money.” Those words must sound as an exaggeration, but it is a fact that for the main part of players the operational costs (coaching team, flights, hotels, etc.) are too high to allow them to turn a profit during their career. Only the very best players are able to reach financial success. Taking that into account, it is not surprising that some players can potentially make more money betting against themselves than winning their matches. You don’t need to coordinate with your 10 other teammates as it would be needed in a soccer match, it is as easy as losing the match.
Obviously, they need to be careful as how to you do the actual bets: splitting them in several betting websites, not to use the accounts of relatives or close friends, etc. The ATP and betting companies are very aware of this fact, but unfortunately it’s very difficult to prove this practice.
It is logical to think that match fixers should be not-so-young players, without the potential to rise in the ATP Rankings, and it should happen more often in minor tournaments. However, the BBC/BuzzFeed report shows that some of the cases have taken place in major tournaments such as Wimbledon, and within players in the top rankings (including one Grand Slam champion). According to their sources, the TIU (Tennis Integrity Unit), after analyzing strange movements in quotes, they have evidence of match-fixing by 16 players that were part of the ATP’s Top 50 at one point. We all suspect who those players are, but we are sure that there will be surprises when the final list comes to light.
We have seen in several occasions some strange quote movements, and even taken into account in some occasions the “match-fixing risk” when making our bets.
Match-fixing methods may vary depending on the situation. We suspect that in most cases the player loses the match on purpose, with the rival not suspecting what is going on. By acting that way risk is lower, as only the player and his/her sidekicks know about the situation. And if that particular player is the favorite even better, as his/her rival’s quote will be higher, and their profit will also be higher.
We can also find the case of two players who are close friends, or have the same nationality. Some of them spend a great deal of time together as they play doubles and mixed-doubles together, and there might be an agreement for one of them to lose the match or agree on the evolution of the match, taking advantage of the Live quotes to obtain the highest profit. This is what happened during the Davidenko vs. Vasallo-Argüello in Sopot on 2007. Another method is that both players agree to win one set each, and play the third one freely. By doing so, they can make money betting for the match to last more than 2 sets, but the winner will be decided in an “honest” way.
The BBC/BuzzFeed report refers to matches played during the last decade. In reality, we have been seeing strange movements on quoted for a long time, especially in pre-match and Live and in certain tournaments. However, we have seen less suspicious activities in the last years, probably a cause of increased investigation by ATP, effective sanctions to players and the media involvement in this subject.
On another note, we also need to mention that some players have reported being contacted in their hotels by individuals offering them large sums of money in exchange of losing their games, and even threatening those players and their families in case that offer is rejected. We need to take into account that this puts players in a very difficult situation. The BBC suspects especially of Russian and Italian organizations.
Lastly, we are also aware of a common practice involving ATP physiotherapists. They are asked for inside information related to the physical condition of certain players who have recently suffered injuries. They are handsomely paid for that information, with payments that often represent several times their yearly salary. This practice can’t be considered as cheating, but it is a something that is happening in many tournaments lately, as some professional players have declared pyckio.com during off the record interviews. We can therefore deduct that some of the sudden movements in quotes are originated from their medical team, not from players themselves.
Eight out of the sixteen players under investigation, whose names will most likely become public at one point or another, are currently playing the Australian Open.
Javier Baños Pantoja (javitennis) is currently one of our 2 Tennis Tipsters PRO. Javier has been a professional Tennis player. He was ranked ATP number 1006 and has played against players like Chardy or García-López, so he is definetely a Tipster with an in-depth knowledge of the sport he tips on. As of today, he has achieved a 5.4% yield in 799 picks and he seems to like mid to low odds. Read below the interview we’ve made him and should you want to buy the picks of an authentic Tennis “insider” who knows perfectly what is going on in the Tennis circuit, just do it here.
1. What do you do, apart from Tennis tipping?
I am studying journalism in a USA university, as it was there where I started and I’m going to prepare to enter the national policy force in Spain.
2. You’ve been a professional Tennis player. Which known players have you faced in your career?
I become ATP number 1006 once and I’ve played official matches with Top 30 players like Guillermo Garcia Lopez and Jeremy Chardy. I’ve also played with Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano López and Vivi Ruano in some pre-seasons in Madrid.
3. In terms of betting, how does it help to be an ex-professional Tennis player?
It helps me to know what are the players behaviours at key moments or how they react to different type of matches. Having played Tennis for so long makes you a freak of tournaments and players. Moreover, experience helps you have a special intuition about the potencial performance of players in different circumstamces (form, surface, physical condition or phase of the season).
4. How long have you been betting?
I’ve been betting for the last 2 years.
5. How did you know Pyckio?
Mi brother told me he had discovered a site where you could submit your picks in different markets and generate your own track record, apart from using it to prove yourself and improve your betting skills. It’s also a good way of following matches.
6. You tip on both ATP and WTA. What are the differences? What do you prefer?
I clearly prefer the ATP circuit because the WTA is far more volatile and irregular. WTA players are more fragile mentally and they strive to maintain their concentration from the start to the end of the game.
7. Do you watch the Tennis matches?
Yes, I watch Tennis every day, it doesn’t matter if I have bet or I haven’t. I love Tennis and being so closed linked to this sport helps me stay informed of the players form and their evolution.
8. What kind of information do you use to make your picks?
I use the players form, how the different styles of play match in an encounter, their skills and adaptation to the tournaments surface, their motivation… To sum up, I use my experience and sport knowledge to make bets I really trust. At the end what I do is to analyse all the variables that can influence the final outcome and try to see if there are value odds and inefficiencies.
9. You do level stakes, why?
Because it’s the most easiest strategy and it’s difficult to discern “degrees of value”. I’m sure of the value in every pick I submit.
10. Your average odds are medium-low. Do you think you are better at detecting value at lower odds?
In principle my strategy is not to make low or medium odds bets. I do all kind of odds. My average odds being not high is an output rather than an input. That is, I analyse players and matches and I don’t select low odds picks on purpose, it’s just that on average my subconscious mind seems to prefer it :-).
11. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I cannot promise results but I can assure hard work, a deep understanding of tournaments and players and not being over confident when I am in very good runs. I am very confident that the 2016 season will be fine and I hope many of you can also take advantage of it.
Follow javitennis to receive Free promotional picks from time to time or buy his picks (30% discount till December 31!!) to boost your betting results!!
We’ve got already our iOS APP!! Download it FREE from iTunes here:
November arrives and with it great discounts in our Tipsters PRO picks. If you buy any picks package from 1 to 8 November, you will enjoy a 40% discount, if the purchase is made from 9 to 15 Nov the discount will be 35%, from 16 to 22 Nov, 30% and from 23 to 30 Nov. 25%. Therefore, the sooner you buy them the better!!
You can make your purchase:
1. From each Tipster PRO profile page, directly with your debit/credit card. The picks bought will be automatically allocated in your account.
2. From Skrill or Paypal. Send us the money to our Skrill or Paypal account (in both cases email@example.com). Please include the information of your username at Pyckio and the Tipster PRO and number of picks you want to buy and we’ll allocate them in your account manually.
Should you have any doubt please email us to firstname.lastname@example.org
abet is currently one of our 4 Football Tipsters PRO. He tips in many leagues from all around the world and his records show he is capable to deliver great value with his picks, with a 7.2% yield in 1011 picks (as of September 25, 2015). He prefers to remain anonymous as he works in the betting industry. He is also a professional bettor. abet is definetely a Tipster who knows what he is talking about.
1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Football?
Currently I work in the betting industry so I am privy to information and resources that help me to place high value bets on a regular basis. I bet professionally myself on both football and rugby then share these bets with my Pyckio followers.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I have been betting and making year-on-year profits for more than 10 years. From an early age I could see bookmakers were pricing things inaccurately and I wanted to take advantage of this. My stakes have steadily increased and I now win more from sports betting than most jobs pay.
3. How did you know Pyckio?
A contact of mine, who successfully follows my bets, referred me to Pyckio. He predicted that if I shared my bets on Pyckio, I would achieve PRO status and he wasn’t wrong!
4.You bet in more than 20 different leagues Who do you do to find value in some many different competitions? Any favourite league for betting?
I have a network of local contacts and analysts who will provide me with the in-depth information I require to place bets on each league. My style of betting means I will be successful across a wide variety of leagues and cups but I have a preference for International tournaments or friendlies and Continental competitions as I believe the bookmakers’ prices for these matches are especially inefficient.
5. Do you watch the football games?
Of course I watch many football matches and I like to get a feel for each team’s style of play by watching them when the opportunity arises. But you do not need to watch every game that you place a bet on. Just make sure you read the post-match reports, live twitter feeds and check the in-game stats.
6. What kind of information do you use to generate your picks?
Aside from the obvious factors that I take into account such as team news, playing styles and statistical data, I observe market moves and evaluate the betting patterns of the biggest football betting syndicates to give me an extra edge. The process of finding the best value bets requires hours of work each day.
7. Why level stakes?
Level stakes is a strategy I have adopted to minimize risk. There will always be fluctuations in performance but by maintaining level stakes, volatility will be reduced. I am confident I will beat the market consistently over time and each bet I place must meet my strict value criteria.
8. In which bookies do you best most?
I only use Asian bookies (SBO, Pinnacle, Maxbet, ISN) through a betting agent. I am restricted/limited/banned from all major UK or European bookmakers so this is my only choice.
9. Which yield do you think you could maintain in the long run?
Naturally the more bets you place, the lower your yield will be. Only a fraction of bettors or tipsters are profitable long-term. I am one of those few. Taking Pinnacle price only, I believe anything above 5% long-term is commendable.
10. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I provide tips across a wide selection of leagues and competitions, both early and on the day of the game. But most importantly, unlike many tipsters out there, I am betting my picks with my own money so I am not just advising you to place a bet, I am doing it too. I have had great success in the past doing this and will continue to do so. I am doing the work so you don’t have to!
Follow abet to receive Free promotional picks or buy his picks to boost your earnings!!
On september 1st we detected a totally unacceptable behavior by our Tennis Tipster PRO “tantar“. This is the explanation:
Exceptionally there are Tennis matches that are still open (to submit picks) even thought the match has already started. This is due to a technical issue we’ll fix soon. In any case, when this happens, we delete manually those picks submitted when the game is in-play, so these picks are never valid. Yesterday night tantar introduced 3 picks in 2 matches, when these have already started >30 minutes ago. tantar tried to take advantage of this information to submit these picks, that obviously were won. Several users contacted us to alert us about it.
In line with our policy of maximum ethics and transparency, we have taken the decision of eliminating tantar as a Tipster PRO at Pyckio. We cannot accept that our image and reputation get damage for such a reprehensible misconduct, by one of our Tipsters PRO.
We are the first directly affected by this measure, so if we have taken it is because we are convinced of what happened.
(Note: this post was written on September 1st but it was deleted (along with its comments) due to a problem in our server. If you introduced a comment please re-introduce it, because we lost the information and cannot recover it)
Jules Aunay (tantar), who prefers to maintain his privacy (this is not his real name), is currently our only Tennis Tipster PRO. Up to now (17 July 2015) he has achieved a 7.5% yield (8.9% with level stakes) in 711 picks. tantar tips on both ATP and WTA. He is a software developer that has been betting since 2000 but in the last years he has taken it more seriously. He has been able to produce a 2nd surce of income with his real money bets and has showed to be the best Tennis Tipster at Pyckio at the moment.
1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Tennis?
I am a software developer.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
For fun I’ve been betting for more than 15 years, but I’ve started seeing this as something worth doing since 2004. I always loved numbers and sports so betting came natural for me :)
3. How did you know Pyckio?
I found you on the internet
4. You tip on both ATP and WTA. What are the differences? Which one do you prefer?
There are not many differences between the two as the game is the same, forehands, backhands, serve. Probably the main difference is the hold ratio which is bigger in the ATP than the WTA, hence resulting in more contested games in WTA. I personally prefer the WTA as serve is broken far more often, and the good returners can win matches easier.
5. Do you watch the Tennis games?
I try to watch as many games as I can as I believe this is the main key. You can learn a lot from watching tennis games. First of all, every player’s style of play, how they begin matches, how they manage themselves in winning positions and the most important thing if they are injured or have small motivation during a tournament.
6. Which are your information sources?
The main sources of information are the matches I watch, and then, well, social media is a huge thing nowadays, almost every player inside the top 100 has a twitter account, although they don’t post many relevant things. The twitter/facebook accounts of tournaments are also filled with information as you can see pictures/videos of players during training sessions which can be relevant.
7. You make flat stakes, why?
Flat stakes are easier to follow, and this is how I bet for myself as well. I only bet on games which i feel good about so for me flat stake is best.
8. Which are the best bookies for Tennis betting?
It depends on how you bet on tennis. If you want to bet pre-match Pinnacle have the best odds in recent years. When I started betting Nordicbet also had very good odds and a lot of interesting bets so i have to mention them as well. Otherwise, if you like trading, by far the best is Betfair.
9. Do you think you will be able to maintain a 7-8% yield in the long run?
Tennis is a tough sport, mainly because it is an individual sport, and you depend solely on the player you bet. A constant yield is something very difficult to achieve as there are ups and downs. From my experience so far, it is not easy to maintain a 7-8% yield over the long run but I have confidence I can do it, at least a 5% yield in the long run.
10. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I cannot guarantee results but I can guarantee hard work, a deep understanding of this sport. Now it’s your decision ;-).
Follow tantar to receive Free promotional picks or buy his picks to boost your earnings!!
If you are a great Tipster with a valid and demonstrable track record in other sites, as of next September we’ll be able to import your betting records and you could become a Tipster PRO in Pyckio. All our Tipsters PRO win 50% of the net revenue they generate. At Pyckio picks are purchased in packages and the pick price depends on the Rating of each Tipster and the package size bought. We’ll only import the picks from those tipsters who will pass our algorithm and will become Tipsters PRO. The reason is that it’s a very time consuming manual process we will carry out rigorously. We cannot import the records of all the tipsters. You can be a Tipster PRO in any of the the sports you can find here.
Pyckio is a sports betting marketplace that in only 1 year has grown strongly and we’ll keep on growing rapidly in the next months. With more than 15,000 registered users we are the ideal platform for the best tipsters to sell their picks.
We still have to define how the import process will be but we can advance it will be very rigorous. We won’t accept records from sites of dubious reputation nor picks registered in out of the market bookmakers odds that cannot be followed. Only those tipsters who will pass the exam of our algorithm and will have a minimum Rating of 4.25 after the import process is made, will become PROs. We explain here how our Rating works. It depends on 4 factors: the real Yield, the Level stakes Yield, the number of picks and the volatility.
If you might be interested and you want us to guide you and know if your records could make you a Tipster PRO at Pyckio just contact us at email@example.com with the subject “New Tipster PRO”.
Now you don’t have to worry!! You can take your holidays without having to consume the picks you bought of any of our Tipsters PRO. From today you will be able to stop your Tipsters PRO’s subscriptions for a maximum of 14 days. Yes, a maximum of 14 days per each stop. You will be able to make 1 stop if you buy a 100 picks package, 2 stops for 200 picks packages and 3 stops for 500 picks packages. And if you buy several picks packages of one or more tipsters, the total number of picks will be computed. These are our current Tipsters PRO. So come on and enjoy the beach!!