Even taking into account that a Tipster’s statistics are the main element to be analyzed by any punters trusting a third party, there are other factors that should be considered in order to improve the selection process and minimize mistakes while deciding which Tipster to trust. This is what we have called “Tipster’s Manual of Style”, which is focused mostly on the communication from Tipsters towards their followers or subscribers, whatever platform is used to send their regular picks, own blog / web, or social media.
We think the best Tipsters are the ones that:
- Are aware of the difficulty of making a profit betting, not giving the impression of being excessively confident. Being confident about beating the market and make a profit long term is acceptable, and very different from excessive confidence. Unfortunately, it is very common to find the latter in our industry. We recommend you to run away from Tipsters trying to give you the feeling that it is easy for them to win any bet, or give you assurances that they can easily make a profit in the short term. Expressions such as “we are sure that this month we will catch up with losses” or “very soon our trend will improve dramatically” indicate that either the Tipster ignores the realities of this industry, or he wants to sell you his services no matter what.
- They know that long term success is not based on “being right” but on finding inefficient odds. Easier said than done, but this is the key to make a constant profit. The best Tipsters in the market know that betting is a “probability game” whose secret doesn’t lay on being right or wrong about a bet. Many of them take all the credit when they win a bet, and some even accept the responsibility when missing one. However, it is almost impossible to control all the factors involved in a sport event. It is the work of a tipster to find “a certain value” in each bet, something that can only be observed after analyzing the statistics of a long enough sample of previous bets.
- They do not focus on specific short term results, as they know that in the short term the luck factor becomes extremely important. It is always a bad sign when a Tipster is mentioning too often the good results of their latest day, week or month picks. In Pyckio we do always a good marketing of our Tipsters PRO, but without focusing too much on the short term results. Based on our experience, the best Tipsters are usually the most humble and discreet, the ones that are aware of the difficulty of maintaining good results in a sustainable way.
- When they decide to explain a pick, they are doing it with quality arguments. It is not always necessary to give an extensive explanation when selecting a pick. However, if a Tipster chooses to do so, it is very important to focus on the quality of the reasons for the pick choice. Always beware if a Tipster is not giving specific details, including only information that is public in the market (thus, already reflected in the odds). The best explanations are the ones that include information that is not yet known or public, or the ones that give a reasoned personal opinion to justify a higher or lower odd. In other words: “what important factor do I know for a fact, or what’s my personal view on the matter, that the market should be taking into account?”
In summary, if you are thinking about trusting a Tipster, in addition to audited past statistics, it is advisable to analyze its external communication in order to select the right one for you. If one particular Tipster is often bragging about specific wins, gives too much importance to short term, provides vague and not specific information about their choice of pick or is not looking for inefficient odds (too focused on hit and miss), you’d better think twice before subscribing. If you follow this advice, this will minimize your mistakes in the long term in selecting the right Tipster.
Co-founder/CEO de Pyckio.com