nishikori is one of our best Tipsters. He is a professional tennis bettor, who only tips on liquid markets (only ATP, no challengers) and has achieved a 11.3% yield in 815 bets up to now. Once you read this interview you will realize he definetely knows what he is talking about. He is the PRO Tipster with the highest average odds figure.
-1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Tennis at Pyckio?
I am a profesional bettor. I am also linked to the tennis world professionally (my public job) but I prefer not to give further details. Even though I don’t have access to any type of insider information, I wouldn’t like my working enviroment to know about my tipster facet. You know this isn’t well considered and it could affect my work. That’s the reason why I’ve decided to preserve my anonymity at Pyckio.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I started betting many years ago, around 2005/2006, although I’ve been doing it professionally since 2013. As I‘ve been linked to the tennis world since I was a child and I like all related to numbers and statistics (I’m an economist), it was just a matter of time I started betting on tennis. At the beginning I had my ups and downs and I used to lose at the end of the year. But with time and experience I’ve been able to transform my past losses into profits.
3. Why do you want to work as a tipster if you already benefit from your real money bets?
I know this is a question commonly asked to tipsters, but the answer is easy. The reality is that it provides me with some extra money with little extra work and effort so, why not doing it? I obviously place my personal bets first, trying to affect the odds as mínimum as posible and then submit my Pyckio picks to my subscribers.
4. How did you know Pyckio?
A friend of mine talked to me about it. I’ve seen other platforms and this is the most professional one.
5. You only tip on ATP, why?
It requires me too much work to be completely updated with all the ATP players and tournaments news. I don’t have enough time to follow the WTA. I’m sure I wouldn’t get the same positive results on WTA and my ATP figures might be affected. I have an edge over the market on ATP and I wouldn’t like to put it at risk. A day has only 24 hours.
6. Do you watch the tennis matches?
I try to watch as many matches as I can, but I give priority to analysing the news and statistics. Sometimes I do both things at the same time. I focus particulary on watching matches (live or recorded) of new players that come out in the circuit to see their playing style or their mental strength.
7. What kind of information do you take into account to determine your picks?
I analyse the players form, their “mental” form or confidence, playing styles, injuries news, motivation, tournament surfaces, statistics… I don’t think this differentiate me from what most bettors and tipsters do. In my opinion the difference between the best tipsters and the rest is that the former know how to price that information. I think I excel at valuing to what extent this information is already priced within the odds. Sometimes the market overprice some news, such us players injuries, tiredness or motivation. Other times, bettors overvalue some players because they are well known, even though their form is horrible. In general, when an opinion/information on any particular game/tennis player is very widespread among bettors the value uses to be on the opposite side. And there I am, trying to get advantage of inefficient prices. My work isn’t trying to find winners; this is the way to perdition. My work consists of finding value, finding inefficient odds. There are great tennis analysts out there and most of them aren’t good tipsters. Tipping is a very difficult business. You fight against the bookie and they have the advantage, their margins. Only those who know “what is the fair price” of the public information available can win.
8. Do you have a method?
If you are asking me if I have any automatic/mathematic method to select my picks the answer is no. The way I try to get good results is focusing on the process, not on the results. That is, if I’m convinced there is value in one particular bet, I submit my pick. I really don’t care too much about my picks results in the short term, it’s the long term where you win. I am satisfied if I see the closing odds are lower than my odds because this means my pick was right, even though I lost it. As Pinnacle closing odds are the most efficient ones, if you beat them constantly it means you are providing value and there is a positive mathematical expectation in your selections.
9. (as of October 3rd 2016) you have achieved 11.3% Yield in 815 bets. These are astonishing figures. Do you expect to maintain this yield over the long run?
I think I can maintain a circa 8-10% yield for my subscribers in the log run. Since I bet professionally these are my yield records: +13.2% (2013), +9.4% (2014), +10.9% (2015), +11.3% (2016), in +4000 real bets overall. I cannot guarantee profits, but I’m quite confident I will continue delivering positive results.
10. Your average odds are quite high (currently 2.40), the highest from all our PRO Tipsters. Why do you like doing dogs?
I am more comfortable doing these kind of bets and I think here is where I can provide more value. Doing high odds means that the bettor who follows me has to be ready to pass through difficult runs from time to time. The probability of losing several consecutive bets in a row is higher when you bet the dogs. However, the rewards can be high for those who follow a conservative staking management strategy and don’t worry too much about the daily results.
11. Why do you do level stakes?
In my personal real bets I use a fixed profit method (the stake depends on the odds) but here at Pyckio I started doing flat stakes just for simplicity. Moreover, I’ve seen some tipsters in Pyckio who have manipulated their results somehow with their staking. In this way, with flat stakes, it’s all crystal clear to all my followers subscribers. They don’t have to investigate further if the difference between the real yield and the level stakes yield is the result of a good money management strategy or if it’s because the tipster has made aggressive staking variations with the objective of manipulating his results.
12. What’s your opinion about live betting?
I only do live betting with some “weak mind” players to protect my winning pregame bets. But to be honest, my live bets haven’t produced positive results overall but a slight loss. My opinion is that it’s very difficult to do profitable live betting unless you investigate it deeply. After considering all the news and factors that can influence a match I think I can figure out if the there is some kind of inefficiency in the pregame odds. But when the match is live, all moves so quickly, with so many factors to consider, that I personally cannot determine if the odds are fair or they aren’t, if there is value or there is not. I think a profitable live betting strategy could be devised with the use of big data and automated bets and I would love to take that challenge in the future. But right now I don’t have the time I need to do it.
13. Any message to your potential subscribers?
If you buy my picks you have a high likelihood of winning money. If you do it, follow all my picks with a conservative staking plan and do not care too much about the daily results. There will be very good runs and very bad ones too. Think of it as a long term investment. Patience will pay off.
Let me help you envision the yearly return my subscribers can expect if they follow my picks, considering I expect to deliver around 800 bets per year and an estimate of 1% flat stake per bet (my advice), under 3 different yield scenarios:
1) 8.0% yield. Expected return: + 96%
2) 9.0% yield: Expected return: +108%
3) 10.0% yield: Expected return: +120%
You should deduct the cost of my picks at Pyckio.
These estimates are conservative because they are done under a fixed bankroll strategy. If you update your bankroll daily, weekly or monthly the return will be higher due to the compounding effect.
I will be happy to answer all your questions. Just address them to Pyckio and they’ll resend them to me.
Let’s win together!!