Jules Aunay (tantar), who prefers to maintain his privacy (this is not his real name), is currently our only Tennis Tipster PRO. Up to now (17 July 2015) he has achieved a 7.5% yield (8.9% with level stakes) in 711 picks. tantar tips on both ATP and WTA. He is a software developer that has been betting since 2000 but in the last years he has taken it more seriously. He has been able to produce a 2nd surce of income with his real money bets and has showed to be the best Tennis Tipster at Pyckio at the moment.
1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Tennis?
I am a software developer.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
For fun I’ve been betting for more than 15 years, but I’ve started seeing this as something worth doing since 2004. I always loved numbers and sports so betting came natural for me :)
3. How did you know Pyckio?
4. You tip on both ATP and WTA. What are the differences? Which one do you prefer?
There are not many differences between the two as the game is the same, forehands, backhands, serve. Probably the main difference is the hold ratio which is bigger in the ATP than the WTA, hence resulting in more contested games in WTA. I personally prefer the WTA as serve is broken far more often, and the good returners can win matches easier.
5. Do you watch the Tennis games?
I try to watch as many games as I can as I believe this is the main key. You can learn a lot from watching tennis games. First of all, every player’s style of play, how they begin matches, how they manage themselves in winning positions and the most important thing if they are injured or have small motivation during a tournament.
6. Which are your information sources?
The main sources of information are the matches I watch, and then, well, social media is a huge thing nowadays, almost every player inside the top 100 has a twitter account, although they don’t post many relevant things. The twitter/facebook accounts of tournaments are also filled with information as you can see pictures/videos of players during training sessions which can be relevant.
7. You make flat stakes, why?
Flat stakes are easier to follow, and this is how I bet for myself as well. I only bet on games which i feel good about so for me flat stake is best.
8. Which are the best bookies for Tennis betting?
It depends on how you bet on tennis. If you want to bet pre-match Pinnacle have the best odds in recent years. When I started betting Nordicbet also had very good odds and a lot of interesting bets so i have to mention them as well. Otherwise, if you like trading, by far the best is Betfair.
9. Do you think you will be able to maintain a 7-8% yield in the long run?
Tennis is a tough sport, mainly because it is an individual sport, and you depend solely on the player you bet. A constant yield is something very difficult to achieve as there are ups and downs. From my experience so far, it is not easy to maintain a 7-8% yield over the long run but I have confidence I can do it, at least a 5% yield in the long run.
10. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I cannot guarantee results but I can guarantee hard work, a deep understanding of this sport. Now it’s your decision ;-).
Follow tantar to receive Free promotional picks or buy his picks to boost your earnings!!
If you are a great Tipster with a valid and demonstrable track record in other sites, as of next September we’ll be able to import your betting records and you could become a Tipster PRO in Pyckio. All our Tipsters PRO win 50% of the net revenue they generate. At Pyckio picks are purchased in packages and the pick price depends on the Rating of each Tipster and the package size bought. We’ll only import the picks from those tipsters who will pass our algorithm and will become Tipsters PRO. The reason is that it’s a very time consuming manual process we will carry out rigorously. We cannot import the records of all the tipsters. You can be a Tipster PRO in any of the the sports you can find here.
Pyckio is a sports betting marketplace that in only 1 year has grown strongly and we’ll keep on growing rapidly in the next months. With more than 15,000 registered users we are the ideal platform for the best tipsters to sell their picks.
We still have to define how the import process will be but we can advance it will be very rigorous. We won’t accept records from sites of dubious reputation nor picks registered in out of the market bookmakers odds that cannot be followed. Only those tipsters who will pass the exam of our algorithm and will have a minimum Rating of 4.25 after the import process is made, will become PROs. We explain here how our Rating works. It depends on 4 factors: the real Yield, the Level stakes Yield, the number of picks and the volatility.
If you might be interested and you want us to guide you and know if your records could make you a Tipster PRO at Pyckio just contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject “New Tipster PRO”.
Now you don’t have to worry!! You can take your holidays without having to consume the picks you bought of any of our Tipsters PRO. From today you will be able to stop your Tipsters PRO’s subscriptions for a maximum of 14 days. Yes, a maximum of 14 days per each stop. You will be able to make 1 stop if you buy a 100 picks package, 2 stops for 200 picks packages and 3 stops for 500 picks packages. And if you buy several picks packages of one or more tipsters, the total number of picks will be computed. These are our current Tipsters PRO. So come on and enjoy the beach!!
We have introduced this new statistics for you to have a better picture of the betting performance of any of our Tipsters. We hope you find it useful.
From today, if you buy any of our Tipsters PRO packages, you will be able to swap your pending picks for those of any Tipster PRO at any time. You will be able to do it yourself in the Settings menu at Pyckio. Yo can make as many changes as you want.
Our aim is for you to change to another Tipster PRO when you aren’t satisfied with the results achieved or when the number of picks sent by your initial Tipster PRO reduces due to seasonal factors, as is happening now in Football. It’s important you don’t confuse a bad run, that is the result of variance and that even the best world bettor will suffer, from a more in-depth issue that has made you lose the confidence in the tipster.
Here you are the current list of all our Tipsters PRO.
Javier Martin (cardiffenio) is one of our Football PRO Tipsters. Up to now (17 June 2015) he has achieved a 8.7% yield in 697 picks, with a remarkable controlled risk profile. cardiffenio is a professional bettor who moved from Spain to Cardiff to work in the sports betting industry. He only tips in some few Football competitions, such as La Liga, Argentina and Scotland.
1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Football?
At the moment I spend my time exclusively on gambling. I am not a highroller but I earn enough money for my expenses and even save a bit. Tipping can be a good complement to increase the amount of fix earnings. I live in the UK since March 2014, although I lived here between 2008 and 2012. It is a good country for a gambler: there are no taxes on winnings and there are more bookies available than in other countries of Europe.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I started arbing in 2006 and soon I realized that if there was an arb available was due to some mistake in the market, so started studying which side could be the one to bet on. Soon I applied for an Odds Compiler job and they picked me despite my lack of knowledge back then.
3. How did you know Pyckio?
I read some books by Joseph Buchdahl and he was the one who implemented the rating system in this website. I like its scientific focus. I also make some investments with other people tips and is something that has been profitable in the last years.
4. You only tip in some few Football leagues. Why?
It is not easy to beat the market in many leagues, so the best is to focus in some leagues you know well and avoid bets in leagues you didn´t study well. Maybe I would have time to study some more leagues, but I wouldn´t be able to keep up with the work every week, and would be too stressing at the end.
5. Do you watch the football games?
I only watch Spanish League and Champions league, but my method doesn´t need the info you get from watching matches. I study team and player stats. I used to watch all the spanish matches in the past and even if you get to know all the teams in deep, you don´t end up doing better bets than I can do at the moment.
6. What kind of information do you use to generate your picks?
I use match stats, there are companies that make a summary of the matches in a series of data like “crosses to the box”, “shots”, “divided balls”, etc and those numbers can be used to determine who deserved to win the match. The final result can be different to that deserved result, but this last one will let you know what the difference between the team was and will let you predict future matches better. Also, you need the motivation of the teams and injuries, etc. to calculate the most perfect odds possible and calculate the value of the different selections.
7. Can you tell us something about your staking policy?
To calculate the stakes I use the Kelly Criterion, which is based in the theorical value of the bet, your bankroll and the confidence you have in the selection. For example if you have a bet with value 5% and a confidence of 100% the stake will be similar to a bet with 10% value and confidence of 50%. You can have lower confidence in matches where you still are unsure about the lineups, injuries, etc.
8. In which bookies do you best most?
At the moment I stake most of my money in www.samvo.com, it is a website that compiles the best prices of the asian bookies, and is registered in the UK. I am not sure if it´s available in the rest of europe but there are other similar websites that are similar.
9. Any message to the punters who are thinking about buying your picks?
In the betting world you can never guarantee winnings (except with arbing), and if anybody promises you that probably is because he didn´t bet enough years. But I can assure that all my bets are based in my own idea and that I think there is value on them, and this can help many bettors who want to invest in gambling. It also can prove helpful for starters, as they could calculate their bets and compare them to the ones I place, trying to understand where our differences come from and comparing the results at the end.
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I often hear or read comments that show surprise at the odds a bookmaker has set for a particular sporting event. Of course, bookmakers will make errors at times, especially those who are the first to set prices before the market is fully formed. But generally speaking, it is us as bettors collectively whose are those that set the odds, not the bookmakers.
Individual odds, or prices, are nothing more than an equilibrium price that is formed by matching the supply and demand [for bets] from punters. Betfair Exchange is the clearest example of a true market. On Betfair, by introducing the bets they are willing to place/lay and at corresponding odds (“supply and demand”), a market price is formed. Other bookies or betting houses are not markets as such. They determine their own odds. But deep down they cannot escape the fact that they are part of a global market and that they have to adjust their prices in response to evolving events. Bookmakers have different strategies to set their odds, but at no point can they go against the market.
There are some bookies that call themselves “the brave” bookmakers. These are the first to publish their odds, which can often leave them exposed. Generally, the odds offered in early markets are the most inefficient, those that will be furthest away from the odds available by the start of the sporting event. However, it is necessary to recognise that these betting houses are not really that “brave”. These bookies are aware that the risk of issuing mispriced odds is high and therefore they normally don’t accept too much money at these odds. They also adjust their prices rapidly and significantly in response to supply and demand in these early markets, even though these [early] bets that they receive are of little importance. Furthermore, the overround margins that tend to apply in early markets are usually higher in order to protect the bookie from this overall greater level of uncertainty.
Being faced against the best punters provides the bookie with a good opportunity to identify mispriced odds and discover value bets, especially if they can target punters whose bankroll is not too high, given that the house is going to accept all or a high percentage of the stake. These types of bets are termed “early bets” on the betting scene. It is important to distinguish between the punter who is able to take advantage of these odds with their personal account in order to win money from the tipster who simply records such odds as part of their track record. The former is totally legitimate and reflective of reality, but the latter scenario is not necessarily a fair representation of reality because the percentage of this tipster’s followers who will be able to take such prices can be very limited; the variation in odds between bookies can be very wide.
On the other side of the equation are the bookies who wait until the market is reasonably formed before they start offering prices; that is, until several bookmakers are also offering prices. By considering the existing odds in the market place, the profit margin that they can add on, and the bets they are likely to receive, these bookies appear to be carefully setting their own odds. In general, bookies don’t have teams of mathematicians analysing whether such and such a price is correct or not. It would be very costly for them to do so and impossible to analyse the probability of the thousands of sporting events that take place on a daily basis.
Besides, as their name suggests in Anglosaxon terms (bookmaker), their role is to manage their risk book… Which, for example, might mean they believe that the true odds of Madrid beating Barcelona are lower than 1.80. But if they receive lots of bets on Madrid to win, they would have to maintain those prices so that the odds of the opposing position (draw or Barcelona) stay high and balance out this risk. Although they might have a definite view or slant towards the outcome of a particular result, in general the bookmakers manage risk and do not try to predict what the odds should be with precision from a statistical view.
What is the conclusion that I wish to draw? That a large portion of the prices set (above all in the most liquid markets in which the most bets are placed) are those that the market realistically determines; that is, determined by the bettors and not the bookies. The bookmakers can make mistakes when the market is not yet formed in early markets. But after that it is the actions of punters that really determine where prices will head and what the fair, equilibrium odds might be.
This is very relevant for the most serious bettors… if the more recreational punters (which represent the vast majority) place bets with a particular bias (for example, favouring the Overs market rather than the Unders market) this can create inefficiencies in the market place, which one can take advantage of. When a punter bets against the house, he has to overcome their rounding [profit] margin, which is not something easy in the long-term.
But it is also true that prices somehow form from the “wisdom of the crowd” and if we are more intelligent than the crowd, the house’s edge can be diminished and in the long run we can make money. However, things are not so easy because the crowd doesn’t only consist of recreational gamblers. Professional gamblers also form part of the crowd, and although they only represent a small portion of all bets placed, they are there betting significant sums of money that help form this market and move prices.
Pyckio is not a bookmaker, but we speak with first-hand knowledge because we have had almost 2 million tips placed in real-time with one bookmaker (Pinnacle Sports). Namely, we understand the public’s betting patterns and we know where the inefficiencies in the market lie. For example, we know how much more is bet on the Over goals than the Unders market, what is most important, where it is easiest or hardest to make money… If you have read the article well perhaps you will imagine where… although you won’t even be able to imagine the extent of the differences!! Perhaps we’ll let you know in future
Co-founder & CEO at Pyckio.com
On next Friday it will start the Copa America, that will be played in Chile. We’ve organised a Tipping competition at Pyckio with great prizes for the top 50 Tipsters. All Pyckio.com registered users will be able to participate for Free. If you don’t have an account in Pyckio yet, sign up here. It’s very easy and quick. Good luck!!