nishikori is one of our best Tipsters. He is a professional tennis bettor, who only tips on liquid markets (only ATP, no challengers) and has achieved a 11.3% yield in 815 bets up to now. Once you read this interview you will realize he definetely knows what he is talking about. He is the PRO Tipster with the highest average odds figure.
(Only until October 10th, if you buy a nishikori 500 or 1000 picks package you’ll get 20% extra picks FREE. If you don’t want to buy his picks, you can just follow him here to receive 1 FREE pick every week.)
-1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Tennis at Pyckio?
I am a profesional bettor. I am also linked to the tennis world professionally (my public job) but I prefer not to give further details. Even though I don’t have access to any type of insider information, I wouldn’t like my working enviroment to know about my tipster facet. You know this isn’t well considered and it could affect my work. That’s the reason why I’ve decided to preserve my anonymity at Pyckio.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I started betting many years ago, around 2005/2006, although I’ve been doing it professionally since 2013. As I‘ve been linked to the tennis world since I was a child and I like all related to numbers and statistics (I’m an economist), it was just a matter of time I started betting on tennis. At the beginning I had my ups and downs and I used to lose at the end of the year. But with time and experience I’ve been able to transform my past losses into profits.
3. Why do you want to work as a tipster if you already benefit from your real money bets?
I know this is a question commonly asked to tipsters, but the answer is easy. The reality is that it provides me with some extra money with little extra work and effort so, why not doing it? I obviously place my personal bets first, trying to affect the odds as mínimum as posible and then submit my Pyckio picks to my subscribers.
4. How did you know Pyckio?
A friend of mine talked to me about it. I’ve seen other platforms and this is the most professional one.
5. You only tip on ATP, why?
It requires me too much work to be completely updated with all the ATP players and tournaments news. I don’t have enough time to follow the WTA. I’m sure I wouldn’t get the same positive results on WTA and my ATP figures might be affected. I have an edge over the market on ATP and I wouldn’t like to put it at risk. A day has only 24 hours.
6. Do you watch the tennis matches?
I try to watch as many matches as I can, but I give priority to analysing the news and statistics. Sometimes I do both things at the same time. I focus particulary on watching matches (live or recorded) of new players that come out in the circuit to see their playing style or their mental strength.
7. What kind of information do you take into account to determine your picks?
I analyse the players form, their “mental” form or confidence, playing styles, injuries news, motivation, tournament surfaces, statistics… I don’t think this differentiate me from what most bettors and tipsters do. In my opinion the difference between the best tipsters and the rest is that the former know how to price that information. I think I excel at valuing to what extent this information is already priced within the odds. Sometimes the market overprice some news, such us players injuries, tiredness or motivation. Other times, bettors overvalue some players because they are well known, even though their form is horrible. In general, when an opinion/information on any particular game/tennis player is very widespread among bettors the value uses to be on the opposite side. And there I am, trying to get advantage of inefficient prices. My work isn’t trying to find winners; this is the way to perdition. My work consists of finding value, finding inefficient odds. There are great tennis analysts out there and most of them aren’t good tipsters. Tipping is a very difficult business. You fight against the bookie and they have the advantage, their margins. Only those who know “what is the fair price” of the public information available can win.
8. Do you have a method?
If you are asking me if I have any automatic/mathematic method to select my picks the answer is no. The way I try to get good results is focusing on the process, not on the results. That is, if I’m convinced there is value in one particular bet, I submit my pick. I really don’t care too much about my picks results in the short term, it’s the long term where you win. I am satisfied if I see the closing odds are lower than my odds because this means my pick was right, even though I lost it. As Pinnacle closing odds are the most efficient ones, if you beat them constantly it means you are providing value and there is a positive mathematical expectation in your selections.
9. (as of October 3rd 2016) you have achieved 11.3% Yield in 815 bets. These are astonishing figures. Do you expect to maintain this yield over the long run?
I think I can maintain a circa 10% yield for my subscribers in the log run. Since I bet professionally these are my yield records: +13.2% (2013), +9.4% (2014), +10.9% (2015), +11.3% (2016), in +4000 real bets overall. I cannot guarantee profits, but I’m quite confident I will continue delivering positive results.
10. Your average odds are quite high (currently 2.40), the highest from all our PRO Tipsters. Why do you like doing dogs?
I am more comfortable doing these kind of bets and I think here is where I can provide more value. Doing high odds means that the bettor who follows me has to be ready to pass through difficult runs from time to time. The probability of losing several consecutive bets in a row is higher when you bet the dogs. However, the rewards can be high for those who follow a conservative staking management strategy and don’t worry too much about the daily results.
11. Why do you do level stakes?
In my personal real bets I use a fixed profit method (the stake depends on the odds) but here at Pyckio I started doing flat stakes just for simplicity. Moreover, I’ve seen some tipsters in Pyckio who have manipulated their results somehow with their staking. In this way, with flat stakes, it’s all crystal clear to all my followers subscribers. They don’t have to investigate further if the difference between the real yield and the level stakes yield is the result of a good money management strategy or if it’s because the tipster has made aggressive staking variations with the objective of manipulating his results.
12. What’s your opinion about live betting?
I only do live betting with some “weak mind” players to protect my winning pregame bets. But to be honest, my live bets haven’t produced positive results overall but a slight loss. My opinion is that it’s very difficult to do profitable live betting unless you investigate it deeply. After considering all the news and factors that can influence a match I think I can figure out if the there is some kind of inefficiency in the pregame odds. But when the match is live, all moves so quickly, with so many factors to consider, that I personally cannot determine if the odds are fair or they aren’t, if there is value or there is not. I think a profitable live betting strategy could be devised with the use of big data and automated bets and I would love to take that challenge in the future. But right now I don’t have the time I need to do it.
13. Any message to your potential subscribers?
If you buy my picks you have a high likelihood of winning money. If you do it, follow all my picks with a conservative staking plan and do not care too much about the daily results. There will be very good runs and very bad ones too. Think of it as a long term investment. Patience will pay off.
Let me help you envision the yearly return my subscribers can expect if they follow my picks, considering I expect to deliver around 1,200 bets per year and an estimate of 1% flat stake per bet (my advice), under 3 different yield scenarios:
1) 7.5% yield. Expected return: + 90%
2) 10% yield: Expected return: +120%
3) 12.5% yield: Expected return: +150%
You should deduct the cost of my picks at Pyckio.
These estimates are conservative because they are done under a fixed bankroll strategy. If you update your bankroll daily, weekly or monthly the return will be higher due to the compounding effect.
I will be happy to answer all your questions. Just address them to Pyckio and they’ll resend them to me.
Let’s win together!!
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We have all had the negative experience of betting for the favorite player, only to see that quotes go through the roof just before the match. The match hasn’t even begun, but you already know that you will lose that bet. In those cases, protecting yourself betting for the adversary player will not be interesting, as quotes are already too low by the time you realize what is going on.
In most occasions when this kind of abrupt quote movements happen, the match is won by the player whose quote has suddenly dropped. Even so, it is not a good idea to bet large quantities of money to that player because we can also suffer an “snowball effect”: a player with a previous history of match-fixing starts experiencing a sudden rise of the quotes. This is noticed by punters who start thinking that the match is fixed, bringing quotes higher. The more those quotes raise, the more the market will think that there is something fishy going on. In this case, movement in the quotes, even normal movements generated by the market, will generate additional movements in the same direction. The player whose quotes were raising wins the match, and punters that bet based on suspicion of match-fixing will lose their capital. We can also find the situation when punters with enough liquidity try to generate this initial movement to take advantage of the lower quotes.
In summary, professionals from the betting industry are very aware that match-fixing is a common practice, as pointed our recently by BBC and BuzzFeed News report. The main problem for law enforcers is to prove the existence of match-fixing, even if there are clear indications that something is going on.
The following chart shows the evolution of the “pre-match” quotes between Pere Riba and Jan Hajek, a match played on October 25th 2010 during the 1st round of the ATP250 Tournament in Vienna. Any punter specialized in tennis would argue that this match didn’t have a clear favorite (the first transaction on Betfair was completed at 1.85-1.90 levels favorable to Hajek). But quotes started to go down slowly until reaching the 1.07 level before the match begun (a 1.07 quote represents a possibility of 93.5% on that direction). As expected, Hajek won the match with a result of 6-0, 6-2. Some people had privileged information, and used that information to bet against the Spaniard. During that match, it was also surprising to see the hundreds of thousands of euro negotiated on Betfair before the beginning of the match – a surprising fact for the 1st round of a minor tournament. This is the evolution of the quotes until the match started:
Even if we tend to think otherwise, not so many professional tennis players make large sums of money during the season. Ernst Gulbis, currently world number 79 and former Top 10, recently made the following statement: “last season I made 600.000 dollars, and I spent them all on my coaching team and operational costs. Players with no sponsors are very limited financially as they can’t afford to hire the basic team (coach and physiotherapist). In order for me to cover all my costs I would need to enter the Top 5. Only after leaving professional tennis, some players start making some money.” Those words must sound as an exaggeration, but it is a fact that for the main part of players the operational costs (coaching team, flights, hotels, etc.) are too high to allow them to turn a profit during their career. Only the very best players are able to reach financial success. Taking that into account, it is not surprising that some players can potentially make more money betting against themselves than winning their matches. You don’t need to coordinate with your 10 other teammates as it would be needed in a soccer match, it is as easy as losing the match.
Obviously, they need to be careful as how to you do the actual bets: splitting them in several betting websites, not to use the accounts of relatives or close friends, etc. The ATP and betting companies are very aware of this fact, but unfortunately it’s very difficult to prove this practice.
It is logical to think that match fixers should be not-so-young players, without the potential to rise in the ATP Rankings, and it should happen more often in minor tournaments. However, the BBC/BuzzFeed report shows that some of the cases have taken place in major tournaments such as Wimbledon, and within players in the top rankings (including one Grand Slam champion). According to their sources, the TIU (Tennis Integrity Unit), after analyzing strange movements in quotes, they have evidence of match-fixing by 16 players that were part of the ATP’s Top 50 at one point. We all suspect who those players are, but we are sure that there will be surprises when the final list comes to light.
We have seen in several occasions some strange quote movements, and even taken into account in some occasions the “match-fixing risk” when making our bets.
Match-fixing methods may vary depending on the situation. We suspect that in most cases the player loses the match on purpose, with the rival not suspecting what is going on. By acting that way risk is lower, as only the player and his/her sidekicks know about the situation. And if that particular player is the favorite even better, as his/her rival’s quote will be higher, and their profit will also be higher.
We can also find the case of two players who are close friends, or have the same nationality. Some of them spend a great deal of time together as they play doubles and mixed-doubles together, and there might be an agreement for one of them to lose the match or agree on the evolution of the match, taking advantage of the Live quotes to obtain the highest profit. This is what happened during the Davidenko vs. Vasallo-Argüello in Sopot on 2007. Another method is that both players agree to win one set each, and play the third one freely. By doing so, they can make money betting for the match to last more than 2 sets, but the winner will be decided in an “honest” way.
The BBC/BuzzFeed report refers to matches played during the last decade. In reality, we have been seeing strange movements on quoted for a long time, especially in pre-match and Live and in certain tournaments. However, we have seen less suspicious activities in the last years, probably a cause of increased investigation by ATP, effective sanctions to players and the media involvement in this subject.
On another note, we also need to mention that some players have reported being contacted in their hotels by individuals offering them large sums of money in exchange of losing their games, and even threatening those players and their families in case that offer is rejected. We need to take into account that this puts players in a very difficult situation. The BBC suspects especially of Russian and Italian organizations.
Lastly, we are also aware of a common practice involving ATP physiotherapists. They are asked for inside information related to the physical condition of certain players who have recently suffered injuries. They are handsomely paid for that information, with payments that often represent several times their yearly salary. This practice can’t be considered as cheating, but it is a something that is happening in many tournaments lately, as some professional players have declared pyckio.com during off the record interviews. We can therefore deduct that some of the sudden movements in quotes are originated from their medical team, not from players themselves.
Eight out of the sixteen players under investigation, whose names will most likely become public at one point or another, are currently playing the Australian Open.
Javier Baños Pantoja (javitennis) is currently one of our 2 Tennis Tipsters PRO. Javier has been a professional Tennis player. He was ranked ATP number 1006 and has played against players like Chardy or García-López, so he is definetely a Tipster with an in-depth knowledge of the sport he tips on. As of today, he has achieved a 5.4% yield in 799 picks and he seems to like mid to low odds. Read below the interview we’ve made him and should you want to buy the picks of an authentic Tennis “insider” who knows perfectly what is going on in the Tennis circuit, just do it here.
1. What do you do, apart from Tennis tipping?
I am studying journalism in a USA university, as it was there where I started and I’m going to prepare to enter the national policy force in Spain.
2. You’ve been a professional Tennis player. Which known players have you faced in your career?
I become ATP number 1006 once and I’ve played official matches with Top 30 players like Guillermo Garcia Lopez and Jeremy Chardy. I’ve also played with Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano López and Vivi Ruano in some pre-seasons in Madrid.
3. In terms of betting, how does it help to be an ex-professional Tennis player?
It helps me to know what are the players behaviours at key moments or how they react to different type of matches. Having played Tennis for so long makes you a freak of tournaments and players. Moreover, experience helps you have a special intuition about the potencial performance of players in different circumstamces (form, surface, physical condition or phase of the season).
4. How long have you been betting?
I’ve been betting for the last 2 years.
5. How did you know Pyckio?
Mi brother told me he had discovered a site where you could submit your picks in different markets and generate your own track record, apart from using it to prove yourself and improve your betting skills. It’s also a good way of following matches.
6. You tip on both ATP and WTA. What are the differences? What do you prefer?
I clearly prefer the ATP circuit because the WTA is far more volatile and irregular. WTA players are more fragile mentally and they strive to maintain their concentration from the start to the end of the game.
7. Do you watch the Tennis matches?
Yes, I watch Tennis every day, it doesn’t matter if I have bet or I haven’t. I love Tennis and being so closed linked to this sport helps me stay informed of the players form and their evolution.
8. What kind of information do you use to make your picks?
I use the players form, how the different styles of play match in an encounter, their skills and adaptation to the tournaments surface, their motivation… To sum up, I use my experience and sport knowledge to make bets I really trust. At the end what I do is to analyse all the variables that can influence the final outcome and try to see if there are value odds and inefficiencies.
9. You do level stakes, why?
Because it’s the most easiest strategy and it’s difficult to discern “degrees of value”. I’m sure of the value in every pick I submit.
10. Your average odds are medium-low. Do you think you are better at detecting value at lower odds?
In principle my strategy is not to make low or medium odds bets. I do all kind of odds. My average odds being not high is an output rather than an input. That is, I analyse players and matches and I don’t select low odds picks on purpose, it’s just that on average my subconscious mind seems to prefer it :-).
11. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I cannot promise results but I can assure hard work, a deep understanding of tournaments and players and not being over confident when I am in very good runs. I am very confident that the 2016 season will be fine and I hope many of you can also take advantage of it.
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