The Pyckio Blog

How to apply de Kelly criteria in your betting with the “Unit Impact” method

by Daniel Mateos · 2 Comments

portada barge

Note: This post is based on the following work. Barge-Gil, García-Hiernaux (Pyckio shareholders), A. (2019): Staking plans in sports betting under unknown true probabilities of the event. MPRA Working Paper 92196. University Library of Munich.

Kelly staking method has been shown to maximize long term growth of the bankroll (Kelly, 1956) and also median fortune (Ethier, 2004). The Kelly formula tells us that the percentage of bankroll to be staked in each bet is:

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Interview with our Football PRO Tipster futunver

by Daniel Mateos · 5 Comments


Futunver is right now our top International Football PRO Tipster. He started tipping in Pyckio in 2016 and after 1820 bets he has been able to achieve a 8.3% Yield or ROI, what translates into a 226.6% return on capital (ROC) if we had bet 1.5% of our bankroll per bet and without deducting any fees.He has been producing positive results for 9 consecutive months and is now in the top 3 of our ranking  table. His strategy is based on looking for the local victory. This type of picks represent around 95% of the total. In this interview you can know more about him.

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Do NOT bet on the underdogs in the Tennis Grand Slams!!

by Daniel Mateos · 1 Comment


In the above charts we have analysed the results of frontrunners vs underdogs in all the ATP tennis matches in the last decade (2010-2018). The objective has been to test whether there are significant differences between the grand slams matches, played to the best of 5 sets, and the rest of matches, such as ATP 250, 500, Masters 1000 and World Tour Final Series, played to the best of 3 sets. That is, is there any particular pattern in terms of favorites vs underdogs in grand slams vs the other tournaments that can be interesting from a punter perspective?

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Interview with our Volleyball PRO Tipster Julio Velasco

by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

foto juliovelasco3With the 2018 Volleyball Men’s World Championship, that has just started, we would like to present you a great insider in this sport and an awesome tipster. He is our Volleyball PRO Tipster Julio Velasco, who works as a Volleyball coach and has been linked to the Volley world since many years ago, since he was a child. To date he has been able to achieve a 12.2% Yield in 1053 picks and has stated he is confident to maintain a 10% objective ROI in the long run. In the interview below you can read more about him and his insights into this sport.

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Pinnacle closing odds, market efficiency and Tipsters’ skill

by Daniel Mateos · 3 Comments

In the last months “Beating the Pinnacle closing lines” has being a recurrent topic of discussion in the betting landscape. As the betting analyst Joseph Buchdahl has proved in his great book “The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling (Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks)” and other betting articles, Pinnacle closing odds are the most efficient lines. Joseph states that “according to the efficient market hypothesis, the closing odds provide the most efficient or most accurate representation of the probabilities of actual results, since they reflect the most amount of information expressed in the form of wagers by the betting public”. I do obviously agree with this statement, as it could not be otherwise, but I think some bettors who follow tipsters are drawing some wrong conclusions out of it. I have read categorical assertions stating that those who do not beat the closing lines, those whose yield to the closing price is negative (having previously removed the Pinnacle margin) are not genuine skilful bettors. In this article about the “Wisdom of the Crowds” Joseph presents the different ways of removing the bookie margin.

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Interview with our new Tennis WTA PRO Tipster Guille Navarro

by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

foto guillenavarroGuille Navarro is a Tennis PRO Tipster specialised in the WTA. He has been succesfully tipping on women tennis, where he is a genuine expert, for several years. To date he has achieved at Pyckio a 8.8% Yield in 707 picks. In the past he has also been able to generate a +6% yield in more than 2000 bets Guille has developed a tennis information tool (Tennislive) that he’s been using since some months ago. He affirms that it helps him achieve better results.

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A Tipster’s Manual of Style

by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

manual de estilo del tipster

Even taking into account that a Tipster’s statistics are the main element to be analyzed by any punters trusting a third party, there are other factors that should be considered in order to improve the selection process and minimize mistakes while deciding which Tipster to trust. This is what we have called “Tipster’s Manual of Style”, which is focused mostly on the communication from Tipsters towards their followers or subscribers, whatever platform is used to send their regular picks, own blog / web, or social media.

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The new Rating of Pyckio

by Daniel Mateos · 14 Comments


Today we are announcing the introduction of a change to the algorithm that calculates our Tipster Ratings at Pyckio. We know there will be tipsters who will be harmed by these changes and therefore won’t like this modification. However, our intention is to make our tipster evaluation as representative as possible of the quality and skills of the tipsters themselves. Moreover, our new Rating has been designed taking into account our future Sports Betting Fund that will feed on Pyckio tipsters/analysts to place its bets. In fact, our new Rating includes bet liquidity as a factor, something vitally important to manage a portfolio that has sports wagers as an asset.

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The Good Tipsters Decalogue

by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

buen tipster

If you want to prove your betting skills as a Tipster at Pyckio, here are a list of guidelines you should consider following to generate, as a PRO TIpster, the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. Ultimately, it all comes down to do things well and reassuring your picks’ followers. This practices are our opinions that we think every good tipsters should follow:

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