The Pyckio Blog

A Tipster’s Manual of Style

July 19 2017, 18:25 · by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

manual de estilo del tipster

Even taking into account that a Tipster’s statistics are the main element to be analyzed by any punters trusting a third party, there are other factors that should be considered in order to improve the selection process and minimize mistakes while deciding which Tipster to trust. This is what we have called “Tipster’s Manual of Style”, which is focused mostly on the communication from Tipsters towards their followers or subscribers, whatever platform is used to send their regular picks, own blog / web, or social media.

We think the best Tipsters are the ones that:

- Are aware of the difficulty of making a profit betting, not giving the impression of being excessively confident. Being confident about beating the market and make a profit long term is acceptable, and very different from excessive confidence. Unfortunately, it is very common to find the latter in our industry. We recommend you to run away from Tipsters trying to give you the feeling that it is easy for them to win any bet, or give you assurances that they can easily make a profit in the short term. Expressions such as “we are sure that this month we will catch up with losses” or “very soon our trend will improve dramatically” indicate that either the Tipster ignores the realities of this industry, or he wants to sell you his services no matter what.

- They know that long term success is not based on “being right” but on finding inefficient odds. Easier said than done, but this is the key to make a constant profit. The best Tipsters in the market know that betting is a “probability game” whose secret doesn’t lay on being right or wrong about a bet. Many of them take all the credit when they win a bet, and some even accept the responsibility when missing one. However, it is almost impossible to control all the factors involved in a sport event. It is the work of a tipster to find “a certain value” in each bet, something that can only be observed after analyzing the statistics of a long enough sample of previous bets.

- They do not focus on specific short term results, as they know that in the short term the luck factor becomes extremely important. It is always a bad sign when a Tipster is mentioning too often the good results of their latest day, week or month picks. In Pyckio we do always a good marketing of our Tipsters PRO, but without focusing too much on the short term results. Based on our experience, the best Tipsters are usually the most humble and discreet, the ones that are aware of the difficulty of maintaining good results in a sustainable way.

- When they decide to explain a pick, they are doing it with quality arguments. It is not always necessary to give an extensive explanation when selecting a pick. However, if a Tipster chooses to do so, it is very important to focus on the quality of the reasons for the pick choice. Always beware if a Tipster is not giving specific details, including only information that is public in the market (thus, already reflected in the odds). The best explanations are the ones that include information that is not yet known or public, or the ones that give a reasoned personal opinion to justify a higher or lower odd. In other words: “what important factor do I know for a fact, or what’s my personal view on the matter, that the market should be taking into account?”

In summary, if you are thinking about trusting a Tipster, in addition to audited past statistics, it is advisable to analyze its external communication in order to select the right one for you. If one particular Tipster is often bragging about specific wins, gives too much importance to short term, provides vague and not specific information about their choice of pick or is not looking for inefficient odds (too focused on hit and miss), you’d better think twice before subscribing. If you follow this advice, this will minimize your mistakes in the long term in selecting the right Tipster.

We will obviously take into account all those aspects in the selection process of Tipsters for our Investment Fund.

The Pyckio Sports Betting Fund

July 09 2017, 11:00 · by Daniel Mateos · 26 Comments

sports betting hedge fund

It has taken us more time than we expected but we’re now close to create hopefully the world greatest Sports Betting Fund. From a very low minimum investment you’ll be able to be part of the project as a shareholder of our company, in a Crowdfunding of which we’ll give more information soon. The funds raised will be used to keep on growing at Pyckio and mainly create all the legal and operational structure of the fund, that will be our new business line. All the shareholders will benefit from the business generated by the fund, in terms of management and success fees.

We will follow a mixed strategy to find long term value bets by using the recommendations of the best tipsters for each sport and competition and strategies generated internally by Pyckio based on Big Data. The analysis of Big Data will be carried out by qualified professionals part of our team.

The long term success of the hedge fund is expected to be based on detecting market inefficiencies. Bookmakers and betting exchanges set their quotes based on bets made by their clients. We know that individual clients don’t make their decisions in a rational way and that generates quote inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of, specially by using bookmakers with low margins. Also, even if bookers such as Pinnacle Sports do not limit bets from winners (it helps them fine-tune their quotes), operating through betting brokers remains a possibility.

The Hedge Fund will diversify by sports, competitions and markets. The intention is to build a portfolio of great analysts for each sport and competition we will be focusing on, and offer a variable remuneration depending on the actual results achieved though their picks. If picks are successful, (circumstance that will be based on several factors and in no case will be absent of risks), this remuneration might be higher than the amount received by selling individual picks to punters.

The due diligence process will be thorough. The Hedge Fund will be analyzing metrics such as market/competition liquidity (apart from the published picks), and carrying out a qualitative analysis including personal interviews in order to optimize the selection process.

Even if the hedge fund is not considering Live bets in a first phase, if you think you have a long term winning system or strategy in that market, with a good track record, you can show your interest through support@pyckio.com. Any source of alpha with the potential to increase the hedge fund’s return will be analyzed.

If you are interested, assuming any possible risk which you may be aware of, you can submit your picks at Pyckio.com. We will be watching all tipsters with positive numbers, and focusing on the ones that excel in a certain competition even if their overall numbers are not good enough to give them Tipster PRO status (Tipster PRO analyst are chosen based on their overall numbers for a certain sport, not for any specific competition).

We are confident in the future success and worldwide repercussion in the sports betting sector of this Hedge Fund, and we would be delighted to valuate your contribution in case you show an express and unsolicited interest in this project.

Daniel Mateos

Co-founder&CEO at Pyckio

Interview with our Basketball PRO Tipster oliverom

May 12 2017, 01:54 · by Daniel Mateos · 5 Comments

oliverom avaoliis a Basketball Tipster who submits hundreds of picks every month in a great variety of competitions. He’s been betting and analysing data to find inefficient odds for more than 10 years. He works with mathematical models fed by quantitative and qualitative variables (absences, last matches, odds movements, objectives…). If you are a bettor who can place a high number of bets every day, the return on capital your bankroll will experience can be amazing if you follow oliverom picks.

(Only until next Monday, May 15th, if you buy any picks package of oliverom we’ll gift you 30% of extra picks. If you don’t want to buy his picks just follow him here to receive up to 2 Free picks per week. We remind you that you can swap your picks to other PRO Tipsters 1 month after your purchase.

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-1. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?

It was around 2005, when I discovered the Betfair Exchange platform. I was impressed to see so many odds related to each other and valued by their own users. In that moment I thought there should be correlation errors and I started to develop different models in search of surebets, even though I haven’t read anything about it. This experience caused my betting learning experience to be different as I didn’t start betting as a game but in search of specific factors, that for me were like solving an equation.

2. How did you know Pyckio?

I didn’t know very much about the tipster concept and I wasn’t interested on it either. I had always clear that you can generate more profits betting rather than selling your tips (obviously if you are a long term winner), but it’s true that most of webpages or sector professionals end up linked to the tipster phenomenon in one or another form. If I remember rightly I read about Pyckio on the news. When I tested it I was pleasantly surprised by the simplicity to introduce picks and access other tipsters’ information. It’s a very user friendly site that lets you have a track record of your statistics. Moreover, in that moment the “Rating” concept was quite new and a great success.

3. You submit a high number of picks every month. Do you have any method/system to find so many value picks in so many different competitions?

Obviously the critical issue is trying to find value in every pick. Once your method shows effectiveness, you have to develop a work methodology to quantify it at all levels. In that way you get to create a calculation routine for every pick and get to be more quick and accurate in the long term.

When the way you come out with every pick is automated, it’s much more easier to find the value and generate many more monthly bets and therefore rotate your bankroll further. But I need time to do it, never less than 5-6 hours per day.

4. What kind of information does your model take into account?

50% of the value of a pick is generated through statistics; 30% via external valuations such as the season stage (playoffs, mid-season, relegation), absences of relevant players, influence of the home factor, odds movement… etc. And 20% is intuition. In any sport there are too many factors to be measured. This causes that many times we see repeated patterns that made us doubt.

External valuations are the most difficult to quantify and those where I have devoted more time for years. It’s not easy how to measure them. How do we quantify the effect when one team is playing to save from relegation and another one plays for nothing?

I always use he intuition factor to discard a bet, but never to believe that I can find value in a bet when the numbers say there is not.

5. Do you watch the Basket games?

I try to watch as many games of different competitions as possible. You can always learn something, some concepts about that league you don’t excel at. And you can also read a lot about what it’s written of those matches. Nowadays you can read the games previews in nearly any language. Information is key in sports betting. Having it and pricing it is imperative.

6. As of today (12 May 2017) oliverom accrues a 6.5% Yield in 3052 picks. These are impressive stats. Do you think you can maintain this figure in the long run?

Honestly I am constantly implmenting improvement systems. I think most of bettors keep on making mistakes with much more intensity than what people think. I know, from the simulations I make, that there is an important room for improvement and I do not only expect to maintain that level but also raising it. However, I prefer not to mention it not to raise expectations.

7. Which is your staking method? Your real Yield is higher than your Yield LS. What’s the reason?

Well, surprinsingly and unlike many others, mi staking isn’t developed to generate higher profits. My model uses the stake exclusively to cushion the bad streaks and this makes the positive stages to be affected too. During the upward trends the Yield LS is higher than the real Yield while in the negative runs the contrary occurs. That is, in my model it’s a good synthom that the Yield LS is lower than the real Yield.

8. Your average odds is quite high (2.46 now) and you’ve got a 26.1% Yield (+19.1% Yield LS) in the 774 picks of the highest odds range (>3.50). These are impressive figures. Why do you think your model produces such great results here?

I don’t think it’s something particular of my model. If you have the ability to find value odds, the value is always superior at the highest odds. Let’s consider a price of 1.20 and our analysis tells us that there is value above 1.05. The maximum Yield we could achieve long term is around 15%. A higher Yield isn’t possible. However, at higher odds the Yield is always higher if you find value. The negative point is that, like when you leverage with stocks or FX, if you’re not able to find value, the losses will be also bigger.

9. Any message to your potential and current subscribers?

Surely the advantage of my service is that the bankroll rotation is high. One subscription is really an investment to achieve results and the rotation is directly linked to the return on capital.

Another important factor is the confidence provided by more than 3,000 picks. The luck factor, the variance than could have influenced the sample size, has nearly dissapeared. Moreover, if we take into accoun that my tips are based mainly on algorithms, we can affirm there aren’t human factors that can alter the results for the future. The strategy is the same, what generates confidence and stability.

Buy now any picks package of oliverom and get Fre 30% of extra picks!!

Promotion valid only until next Monday, May 15th!!

New La Liga Tipsters Competition

March 14 2017, 14:33 · by Daniel Mateos · 3 Comments

You can already join our new La Liga Tipsters Competition, that will start on March 31 and will finish on April 30, a total of 7 rounds, and submit your first picks. Here you can find all the information about the competition.

Participation is Free. The only requirement to participate is to open a NEW account at Pinnacle SportsBet365 or William Hillclicking on the previous links and bet a minimum of 5€. We suggest you delete your browser cookies to make sure the registration is valid. If you are a resident in Spain you can only participate if you register a new account at the bookmaker Kirolbet throughout this link. If you take part in the competition we’ll also gift a 2 Month GrandMaster subscription, valued at 240€!!, that gives you access to all our GrandMaster Tipsters picks.

Once you place the bet (min. 5€) send end us an email to contests@pyckio.com with your username at Pyckio + your username at the bookmaker in the email subject, for example “david77 (Pyckio) + davidscott (Pinnacle Sports)”. Upon comprobation we’ll give you access to the competition.

Good luck!!

The new Rating of Pyckio

February 04 2017, 23:58 · by Daniel Mateos · 14 Comments

rating

Today we are announcing the introduction of a change to the algorithm that calculates our Tipster Ratings at Pyckio. We know there will be tipsters who will be harmed by these changes and therefore won’t like this modification. However, our intention is to make our tipster evaluation as representative as possible of the quality and skills of the tipsters themselves. Moreover, our new Rating has been designed taking into account our future Sports Betting Fund that will feed on Pyckio tipsters/analysts to place its bets. In fact, our new Rating includes bet liquidity as a factor, something vitally important to manage a portfolio that has sports wagers as an asset.

One of the motivations that has made us change our rating is the aggressive and chaotic staking policies of some tipsters, carried out with the intention of artificially manipulating our Rating. We can see this with the following two examples:

Case 1: One Tipster makes 400 bets with an average stake of 2. He reaches a 3% yield. Afterwards he suddenly starts making stake 10 bets. Each of these new set of bets is going to weigh 5 times more on his aggregate yield than the previous ones. If the tipster experiences a good run in a small amount of bets – something which is quite possible – he can raise his yield from 3% to 10%.

Case 2: One tipster reaches the 500 bets figure with an average stake of 8 and a 15% yield. To “protect” this yield he starts making stakes 1 or 2. In this way, even though the tipster’s results with his new staking policy aren’t positive, his 15% yield isn’t going to drop too much as the losses of the new bets have a small impact on the global results. Therefore, the tipster can reach 1000 bets with a relative high yield, even though their results in this second stage have been poor.

In 2015 we introduced the “Level Stakes Yield” ratio in our algorithm to compute not only the tipster real stakes but also their flat state ones. However, this does not completely correct the practices of some tipsters who try to manipulate their Rating with their stakes. Moreover, in practice, most bettors do take into account the odds to decide their stake, as the Kelly method suggests. That is, even though a Tipster always does level stakes and therefore recommends the same stake at odds of 1.25 or 8.0, in general bettors don’t do that; the higher the odds the lower the stake and vice versa, in a way that the profit target of every bet doesn’t vary too much. For that reason, in our new Rating system, different stake strategies are taken into account in a way that manipulation is virtually impossible. It doesn’t mean that you cannot eventually do higher stakes than average when you’ve got confidence in a bet but that a staking policy drawn to manipulate our rating will penalise you.

Aditionally our new rating includes the following factors:

- The number of picks submitted by the Tipster now has a slightly higher weight than before.

- The time the tipster has been tipping. That is, between 2 tipsters with the same yield and number of picks, the tipster who has built his record in six months will have a higher rating than the one who did it in one or two. Our data confirms to us that the probability of a tipster who has achieved good results being due to luck is higher if the record has been obtained in a short period of time. This is logical as if you don’t filter the number of picks you make it more difficult to find value odds.

- The liquidity of the matches where the tipster tips. All else being equal, the higher the liquidity the higher the rating, as the odds drop for the punter is lower for more liquid fixtures and vice versa. To measure liquidity we factor the money Pinnacle lets us bet at the moment the tipster submits his pick. The liquidity offered by Pinnacle depends on both the type of market and the time until the kick off. It could happen that a Premier League match has low liquidity because the tipster sent his pick right after the odds have gone out or a Handball game having high liquidity because the pick was sent a couple of hours before the start.

To sum up, these are the changes that affect our Ratings:

1. Results under different staking strategies are considered.

2. The number of picks gains importance.

3. We take into account the time the tipster has been tipping.

4. Liquidity of the picks submitted is considered.

We’ve carried out many simulations that prove that our new rating better predicts the future results of our tipsters.

In any case, we’ll always require min. 500 picks and a min. 4% Yield LS to become a PRO Tipster.

According to these guidelines the perfect tipster would be one with a high Yield, who has submitted a high number of picks during a longer time frame, who follows sound staking management and who provides high liquidity tips. If you are a tipster at Pyckio, keep on focusing on finding value odds and do not get crazy with your stakes. Please always think how a fund management professional would manage a portfolio. Moreover, please be advised that if you do it well we will monitor you and you could collaborate as an analyst of our Sports Betting Fund.

Win a 2 Month “GrandMaster Subscription” (valued at 240 €) if you register at Bet365!

January 11 2017, 01:51 · by Daniel Mateos · 3 Comments

bet365en

We’ve launched a special promotion, whereby if you register at Bet365 via this link and you bet at least 10€ (in 1 or more bets, at any odds) we’ll gift you a 2 Months GrandMaster Subscription, valued at 240€!! The GrandMaster subscription gives you access to all the picks from many of our best Tipsters (over 40) in different sports. This promotion is only valid for new Bet365 accounts.

Once you create your new Bet365 account and bet minimum 10 €, just send us an email to support@pyckio.com with the subject: “Bet365: your username at Pyckio + your username at Bet365″, for example “Bet365: david84 + AB123456″.  Once we check it we’ll allocate the 2 months GrandMaster subscription in your account.

Moreover, Bet365 offers you a special 100% Deposit Bonus, up to 200€. You can check the bonus conditions in the Bet365 webpage of your country. Please be advised that Bet365 only doubles your initial deposit, so if you only deposit 10€ you will get 10€ more but you won’t be able to enjoy the entire bonus afterwards.

The Good Tipsters Decalogue

November 21 2016, 12:33 · by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

buen tipster

If you want to prove your betting skills as a Tipster at Pyckio, here are a list of guidelines you should consider following to generate, as a PRO TIpster, the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. Ultimately, it all comes down to do things well and reassuring your picks’ followers. This practices are our opinions that we think every good tipsters should follow:

1. Use your Stake reasonably

Each  tipster may use different methods, but please always use common please. If you are going to use a wide stake range  (from 1 to 10), it should be because the odds are also very different. Tipping a stake 10 at 5.0 odds and a stake 1 at 1.25 odds doesn’t make any sense; the “real stakes” curve line shouldn’t distance too far from the “level stakes” one. Your main aim should be to provide value with your stake management rather than doing it with the objective of rasing the number of picks, and our Rating artificially. When the difference between the “real stakes” yield and the “level stakes” yield is very high, something is wrong. Please be aware that we are changing our algorithm shortly to prevent tipsters from manipulating their stake management and affecting their ratings artifficially.

2. Do not make multiple picks in the same match on a constant basis

Betting on both a player/team to win and the over games/goals does make sense because they are different bets; however, we cannot say the same about betting on Chelsea and Chelsea-1. If you do it sporadically, when you think the value is huge, this is perfect. We cannot accept it when you do it as a norm, to boost the number of picks that count for the rating.

3. Maintain some regularity in the number of picks you submit every month

Obviously, the number of fixtures in a given competition varies from month to month, as well as the number of matches where a tipster is able to “perceive value”. That is, it can be normal that one month a tipster submits 50 picks and 100 picks the following month, but, doing 300 picks in one month and 50 in the next means he has changed something. In this regard, making frequent stops which are not due to the absence of matches in the competition isn’t a good practice as it generates distrust in the bettors following the tipster.

4. Do not publish your picks “too early”

If we want the real stats of the bettor who follows the tipster to be similar to the stats published by the latter, it is not advisable to publish “too early”, such as when the bookies odds has just come out. This can cause the Tipster published stats can be quite different (and obviously worse) than their followers. We know it’s not easy, but the tipster should find some equilibrium: do not do near-closing lines because the value might have evaporated but do not publish too soon either.

5. Do not over-bet and do not raise your stakes in your bad streaks

It’s without doubt in the bad runs when the good tipsters arise. If you see that a tipster starts to submit many more picks than normal or raises his stakes to recover from a bad streak run away!!

6. Do not submit picks in multiple competitions

It’s already very tough to win money betting and it’s even harder when a tipster doesn’t have a focus and tips on many different competitions. With some exceptions, as having a mathematical model, it’s very difficult to have the time to study and analyze many leagues and provide long term profitable picks in all of them. We suggest following tipsters who have a focus on only one or very few competitions.

7. Do not  submit an extremely hign number of picks every month

As mentioned above and with the exception of those having an automatic/matematical model (and let’s be honest, it’s quite exceptional) you should be suspicious of tipsters who launch several hundreds of picks every month. It’s very difficult to find value in a high percentage of the matches played. We now have “manual filters” so that tipsters who submit 400-500-600 picks per month will now take more time before they become PRO Tipsters, even if they comply with our 4.25 minimum rating requirement. Our experience is that the probability of a tipster who makes hundreds of tips monthly underperforming is much higher than normal.

8. Give priority to the liquid markets

There are great bettors out there in fairly liquid competitions such as minor football divisions or challenger and ITF Tennis tournaments. These are markets where the ability to find value can be higher, as punters can have more information than the bookies. However the real money bets the bookies admit is also much lower and the odds drift we can see when a tipster with many followers tips in these low liquid markets is much more aggressive. Therefore, there can be phenomenal bettors in these markets, but it doesn’t mean they are great tipsters, as the real odds of those following the tip are very inferior to the odds published by the tipster. In general, it’s preferable to tip on liquid competitions, even though the yield is lower; the real yield of the bettor is going to be much closer to the published yied of the tipster.

9. Do not suddenly change your strategy

If you are, for example, a Tennis tipster who used to tip high odds and after a bad run you start making low odds, something is not going well. If you are specializing in finding value at Football draws and you start making overs, something is happening. These sort of sudden changes make your followers mistrustful of you. The probable outcome is a sharp decrease in your results. Stick yo your strategy and try to improve it, but don’t change it due to a recent bad streak.

10. Do not make excuses when your results aren’t good

In general tipsters only speak about bad luck when their results aren’t good. In the long run the luck factor tends to even itself out, as the good and the bad luck compensate each other. Bettors don’t like the tipster they follow to constantly make excuses when losing bets. The good tipsters keep quiet and accept that sometimes luck will play on his favour and sometimes against.

To sum up, don’t only have to achieve a good set of stats (Yield and number of picks) to be a good Tipster. This is necessary but not sufficient on its own. You should also comply with the major part of these “10 commandments” if you want to generate the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. If you become a PRO Tipster but do not follow these commandments you arent likely to sell many picks ;-).

Win a 2 Months “GrandMaster Subscription” (valued at 240€) if you register at Pinnacle Sports!

November 14 2016, 12:18 · by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

promo2mEN

We’ve launched a special promotion, whereby if you register at Pinnacle Sports via this link and you bet at least 10€ (in 1 or more bets, at any odds) we’ll gift you a 2 Months GrandMaster Subscription, valued at 240€!! The GrandMaster subscription gives you access to all the picks from many of our best Tipsters (over 40) in different sports.

Once you create your new Pinnacle account and bet the 10 €, just send us an email to support@pyckio.com with the subject: “Pinnacle: your username at Pyckio + your username at Pinnacle”, for example “Pinnacle: david84 + AB123456″.  Once we check it we’ll allocate the 2 months GrandMaster subscription in your account.

Pinnacle is the PRO bettors bookmaker par excelence. Any seriour punter cannot not have an account in this bookmaker. It will be the bookie you’ll bet most by far.

why pinnacle

(*) When opening your account in Pinnacle you will be able to check if it’s legally available in your country of residence.

Interview with our PRO Tipster nishikori

October 03 2016, 19:51 · by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

nishikori picturenishikori is one of our best Tipsters. He is a professional tennis bettor, who only tips on liquid markets (only ATP, no challengers) and has achieved a 11.3% yield in 815 bets up to now. Once you read this interview you will realize he definetely knows what he is talking about. He is the PRO Tipster with the highest average odds figure.

(Only until October 10th, if you buy a nishikori 500 or 1000 picks package you’ll get  20% extra picks FREE. If you don’t want to buy his picks, you can just follow him here to receive 1 FREE pick every week.)

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-1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Tennis at Pyckio?

I am a profesional bettor. I am also linked to the tennis world professionally (my public job) but I prefer not to give further details. Even though I don’t have access to any type of insider information, I wouldn’t like my working enviroment to know about my tipster facet. You know this isn’t well considered and it could affect my work. That’s the reason why I’ve decided to preserve my anonymity at Pyckio.

2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?

I started betting many years ago, around 2005/2006, although I’ve been doing it professionally since 2013. As I‘ve been linked to the tennis world since I was a child and I like all related to numbers and statistics (I’m an economist), it was just a matter of time I started betting on tennis. At the beginning I had my ups and downs and I used to lose at the end of the year. But with time and experience I’ve been able to transform my past losses into profits.

3. Why do you want to work as a tipster if you already benefit from your real money bets?

I know this is a question commonly asked to tipsters, but the answer is easy. The reality is that it provides me with some extra money with little extra work and effort so, why not doing it? I obviously place my personal bets first, trying to affect the odds as mínimum as posible and then submit my Pyckio picks to my subscribers.

4. How did you know Pyckio?

A friend of mine talked to me about it. I’ve seen other platforms and this is the most professional one.

5. You only tip on ATP, why?

It requires me too much work to be completely updated with all the ATP players and tournaments news. I don’t have enough time to follow the WTA. I’m sure I wouldn’t get the same positive results on WTA and my ATP figures might be affected. I have an edge over the market on ATP and I wouldn’t like to put it at risk. A day has only 24 hours.

6. Do you watch the tennis matches?

I try to watch as many matches as I can, but I give priority to analysing the news and statistics. Sometimes I do both things at the same time. I focus particulary on watching matches (live or recorded) of new players that come out in the circuit to see their playing style or their mental strength.

7. What kind of information do you take into account to determine your picks?

I analyse the players form, their “mental” form or confidence, playing styles, injuries news, motivation, tournament surfaces, statistics… I don’t think this differentiate me from what most bettors and tipsters do. In my opinion the difference between the best tipsters and the rest is that the former know how to price that information. I think I excel at valuing to what extent this information is already priced within the odds. Sometimes the market overprice some news, such us players injuries, tiredness or motivation. Other times, bettors overvalue some players because they are well known, even though their form is horrible. In general, when an opinion/information on any particular game/tennis player is very widespread among bettors the value uses to be on the opposite side. And there I am, trying to get advantage of inefficient prices. My work isn’t trying to find winners; this is the way to perdition. My work consists of finding value, finding inefficient odds. There are great tennis analysts out there and most of them aren’t good tipsters. Tipping is a very difficult business. You fight against the bookie and they have the advantage, their margins. Only those who know “what is the fair price” of the public information available can win.

8. Do you have a method?

If you are asking me if I have any automatic/mathematic method to select my picks the answer is no. The way I try to get good results is focusing on the process, not on the results. That is, if I’m convinced there is value in one particular bet, I submit my pick. I really don’t care too much about my picks results in the short term, it’s the long term where you win. I am satisfied if I see the closing odds are lower than my odds because this means my pick was right, even though I lost it. As Pinnacle closing odds are the most efficient ones, if you beat them constantly it means you are providing value and there is a positive mathematical expectation in your selections.

9. (as of October 3rd 2016) you have achieved 11.3% Yield in 815 bets. These are astonishing figures. Do you expect to maintain this yield over the long run?

I think I can maintain a  circa 10% yield for my subscribers in the log run. Since I bet professionally these are my yield records: +13.2% (2013), +9.4% (2014), +10.9% (2015), +11.3% (2016), in +4000 real bets overall. I cannot guarantee profits, but I’m quite confident I will continue delivering positive results.

10. Your average odds are quite high (currently 2.40), the highest from all our PRO Tipsters. Why do you like doing dogs?

I am more comfortable doing these kind of bets and I think here is where I can provide more value. Doing high odds means that the bettor who follows me has to be ready to pass through difficult runs from time to time. The probability of losing several consecutive bets in a row is higher when you bet the dogs. However, the rewards can be high for those who follow a conservative staking management strategy and don’t worry too much about the daily results.

11. Why do you do level stakes?

In my personal real bets I use a fixed profit method (the stake depends on the odds) but here at Pyckio I started doing flat stakes just for simplicity. Moreover, I’ve seen some tipsters in Pyckio who have manipulated their results somehow with their staking. In this way, with flat stakes, it’s all crystal clear to all my followers subscribers. They don’t have to investigate further if the difference between the real yield and the level stakes yield is the result of a good money management strategy or if it’s because the tipster has made aggressive staking variations with the objective of manipulating his results.

12. What’s your opinion about live betting?

I only do live betting with some “weak mind” players to protect my winning pregame bets. But to be honest, my live bets haven’t produced positive results overall but a slight loss. My opinion is that it’s very difficult to do profitable live betting unless you investigate it deeply. After considering all the news and factors that can influence a match I think I can figure out if the there is some kind of inefficiency in the pregame odds. But when the match is live, all moves so quickly, with so many factors to consider, that I personally cannot determine if the odds are fair or they aren’t, if there is value or there is not. I think a profitable live betting strategy could be devised with the use of big data and automated bets and I would love to take that challenge in the future. But right now I don’t have the time I need to do it.

13. Any message to your potential subscribers?

If you buy my picks you have a high likelihood of winning money. If you do it, follow all my picks with a conservative staking plan and do not care too much about the daily results. There will be very good runs and very bad ones too. Think of it as a long term investment. Patience will pay off.

Let me help you envision the yearly return my subscribers can expect if they follow my picks, considering I expect to deliver around 1,200 bets per year and an estimate of 1% flat stake per bet (my advice), under 3 different yield scenarios:

1) 7.5% yield. Expected return: + 90%

2) 10% yield: Expected return: +120%

3) 12.5% yield: Expected return: +150%

You should deduct the cost of my picks at Pyckio.

These estimates are conservative because they are done under a fixed bankroll strategy. If you update your bankroll daily, weekly or monthly the return will be higher due to the compounding effect.

I will be happy to answer all your questions. Just address them to Pyckio and they’ll resend them to me.

Let’s win together!!

Now buy a nishikori 500 or 1000 picks package and get 20% picks extra FREE!!

Promotion valid only until next Monday, October 10th!!

Monthly Statistics and picks in .CSV files

June 08 2016, 11:10 · by Daniel Mateos · No Comments

new features

We have introduced 2 new and important features this week at Pyckio:

1. Monthly Statistics. From now on you can see the monthly stats on a Global, Sport and Sport-Country level. Just go to your Account or the account of the tipster you want to see his/her numbers and click on “Monthly Stats”, just above the chart.

2. Tipsters PRO’s .CSV files. Now you can download the picks from all our Tipsters PRO in a .CSV file, so that you can make your own analyses. You can do it from the account of each Tipster PRO, clicking on the green top-right button and also from the Tipsters PRO page.

We keep on improving our platform and we really appreciate your feedback!!

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