The Tennis Australian Open starts next Monday and we have carried out a study to find out the results we would have obtained in the last decade (2010-1018) if we had bet the favourite vs having bet the dog. We have taken the Pinnacle Sports closing odds under a 100€ fixed stake per bet assumption. All in all, we have registered 1140 valid matches.
The results are striking. Should we have bet always the favourite, we’d have achieved a 20€ profit, with a nearly null ROI (0.01%). By contrast, if we had always looked for the surprise we’d have finished with strong losses of 22,414€, a -15.6% ROI!!
Why such a great difference? In the light of these results we can draw the following conclusions:
1. The ” favourite longshot bias” is evident. The favourite longshot bias “is an observed phenomenon where on average, odds offered by the bookmakers at higher prices have an implicit higher margin and vice versa, what means that the probability for bettors to win money betting the dogs is much lower. This bias is mainly observed at very high odds, larger than 5.0, 6.0 aprox.
2. Having said that, it’s also true that the bias in this sample (-15.5% ROI) is extremely negative. One reason is probably that thesample of 1140 matches is not too high. Another additional reason could be that in the Australian Open there might be many less surprises than expected by the market. As it’s a grand slam, they are best of 5 sets matches. Best of 3 sets encounters are much shorter and the potential number of upsets is logically higher, and lower in the former. The favorite players have more margin to recover in grand slams if they are down in the score. This fact might not be fully reflected in the odds.
To sum up, with this analysis we do not want to suggest that you don’t have to bet the dogs in the Australian Open but that you should take this bias into account to make a special effort when selecting your long shots. In the long run the expected return betting the dogs is impressively negative.
To celebrate the Black Friday and the CyberMonday we are offering you a very special promotion!!
Buy any 100, 500 or 1,000 picks package of any of our PRO Tipsters and get free 35% extra picks!! That is, if you buy a 1,000 picks package for example, you would get 1,350 picks.
And if you buy a GrandMaster Subscription we’ll gift you 1 free week for every month you buy. For example, if you buy a 1 year GM subscription, you would get 12 extra weeks Free.
This offer is valid only until Monday, Nov 26 (incl.)!! Hurry up!!
With the 2018 Volleyball Men’s World Championship, that has just started, we would like to present you a great insider in this sport and an awesome tipster. He is our Volleyball PRO Tipster Julio Velasco, who works as a Volleyball coach and has been linked to the Volley world since many years ago, since he was a child. To date he has been able to achieve a 12.2% Yield in 1053 picks and has stated he is confident to maintain a 10% objective ROI in the long run. In the interview below you can read more about him and his insights into this sport.
-1. What do you do, apart from Volleyball tipping at Pyckio?
I am a volleyball coach and I am also a school professor. I am lucky to have a lot of free time and I invest it in what I like most, watching volley and follow up the dynamics of each competition where I am specialized.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I have been linked to this sport since I was a child. It’s a sport I love, where I work part time and that I also enjoy in my free time. I still remember how my friends and I used to enjoy with our national team in every country they visit, in the main world competitions. This passion for volleyball made us become strong followers and analysts of this sport. As you can imagine, many considered us authentic freaks, as we knew players nobody had heard of. We were developing, without knowing it, an innate instinct to predict the more likely outcomes and assess what odds where inefficient.
The following step was obvious. With the boost of the betting business globally we decided to create our own betting fund. Instead of playing the lottery we started investing in sports betting with the focus in volleyball, the sport we excelled at. We didn’t bet too much, but the positive returns arrived.
3. In which bookmakers do you bet?
The truth is that we have been betting in the main national bookies but as you can imagine there was a time where we got limited. In my country, betting professionally is nearly impossible, so I can only say that those who agree with me must look for the Asian bookies that won’t limit you, like Pinnacle. From my country you can bet there through brokers like AsianConnect.
4. How did you know Pyckio?
I knew Pyckio when I read in a social network that a firm was planning to create a sports betting fund and was looking for tipsters to work for their business. My thoughts then where that my dream of making a living out of the betting world exclusively could be feasible, so I created my account at Pyckio ar the start of 2017. The great amount of tipsters this platform has, the way we are analysed, and not only for the well-known yield, became a great challenge to me. Being able to monetize our volley expertise of many years, after having watched so many games and having achieved very good statistics in our personal accounts was great.
5. Do you spend many hours watching Volley matches?
Yes I do. Whenever I can I do watch matches by streaming. In summer the amount of games is lower, only the weekends. But during the season there are many matches during the week,
6. What information do you consider to determine your picks?
States of form, the construction of the squad and potential last minute lows are very important in my betting selections. In some stages of the season rotation of players are more common, in another moments the pressure to win for teams who are up in the table but also less experienced is something to consider. These are variables I take into account.
Every pick must have value. This is not about guessing the winner, it’s about thinking if the price is inefficient or it’s not. If you don’t work in this way you won’t get positive results in the long run. I think Volleyball is a more inefficient sport than others. This is something you can see when you analyse the liquidity. However, there are not big changes in the odds normally. You can find inefficiencies of more than half a point (0.50) one in 50 times and generally 20 ticks is something normal.
7. Do you have any method?
I gather qualitative and quantitative info. On one hand the analysis of the squads provides me with the highest value to determine my fair odds. That is, if the 6 regular players of the team have got a market value much higher than their rivals we already have a clue of what could happen in the match. That market value is a parameter very few possess, as it cannot be compared with the salary (at any case a variable not provided by the clubs) or with the historical name of the teams. In the medium and long run, as long as the season advances the value is more linked to the table standings, although that is not always the best option.
That is, I value the squads that will play before the kick off, filtering this data with info about rotations, previous travels, home factor, injuries, state of form and the relation between the style of play of both teams. With this info I generate my own match and handicap odds. Once the Pyckio/Pinnacle odds are out I compare them and if the difference is significant I try to understand why. If I don’t find I have missed any information I submit my pick,
8. Up to now you have achieved a 12.2% Yield in 1053 picks. What Yield do you expecxt to maintain in the long run?
I think I can get a ROI figure close to 10% in the long run. As you can test with the Pyckio simulator, even a 5% Yield with a 200€ average bet and 1,000 bets done in one year would produce fantastic results, 10,000€ and much more if we use compounding staking, where the average bet gets higher as long as our bankroll grows.
9. What is your opinion about live betting? Do you bet live?
For some time I really enjoyed live betting because during the games there are many turning points where you can get a lot of profit if you follow the match on TV and know well the players. Maybe the Yield is not so high but the ability to manage a higher amount of bets can make that your returns get much higher with the right method. In the last year I have seen that many inefficiencies that I used to see in Volley have been fixed, by either new bettors that have found the same errors that I saw or by the bookies.
However, from a Tipster point of view, with a communication channel with your subscribers, with some few exceptions, I don’t see it’s manageable at all. This is about taking decisions in some few key moments and 2 minutes later the price can have changed completely.
10. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I just can say I am mad about volleyball and numbers, a combination that up to now has let me achieve the PRO status and I will like to follow with this dynamic in the next semesters. I hope and have the confidence that in one year we’ll all be winning together.
In the last months “Beating the Pinnacle closing lines” has being a recurrent topic of discussion in the betting landscape. As the betting analyst Joseph Buchdahl has proved in his great book “The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling (Squares & Sharps, Suckers & Sharks)” and other betting articles, Pinnacle closing odds are the most efficient lines. Joseph states that “according to the efficient market hypothesis, the closing odds provide the most efficient or most accurate representation of the probabilities of actual results, since they reflect the most amount of information expressed in the form of wagers by the betting public”. I do obviously agree with this statement, as it could not be otherwise, but I think some bettors who follow tipsters are drawing some wrong conclusions out of it. I have read categorical assertions stating that those who do not beat the closing lines, those whose yield to the closing price is negative (having previously removed the Pinnacle margin) are not genuine skilful bettors. In this article about the “Wisdom of the Crowds” Joseph presents the different ways of removing the bookie margin.
I am sure the yield to the closing line is a factor to consider that could improve the analysis of tipsters. In general, we can affirm that those tipsters who have a positive yield to closing odds in a sufficiente large sample, are able to predict odds prematch movement, are able to predict which odds will get lower However, having said that, I also think many are considering the Yield to Pinnacle closing lines as the holly grail, as the only way to measure a tipster’s skill, without giving any importance to the tipster’s real yield. In fact this is the same as saying that any bet placed near the market close has a negative expected value, similar to the bookie margin; it’s like throwing away your money, as the market at that moment is totally efficient. And I have to disagree with this “absolute truth”, with this “strong efficient market theory”, for several reasons:
- Yes, the “closing lines” are, ON AVERAGE, the most efficient prices, the odds that more accurately represent the fair implied probability of events. But this is completely compatible with the fact that there can be bettors who are able to find and select some closing prices that might not represent the “true” probability. As Joseph Buchdahl proves in this article, opening odds are, although not as efficient as closing odds, very efficient too. And we all now that many punters are able to make a profit at opening odds. Obviously, it’s more difficult to find inefficient odds at the close, but… who can affirm that a tipster who tips near the market close and who has a great track record in terms of number of picks and yield, has achieved that performace only due to luck? To sum up, that closing odds are the most efficient ones ON AVERAGE doesn’t imply that all of them represent the true probabilities and therefore that no one can take advantage.
- In my opinion we cannot compare the market efficiency theory in the financial markets, where most of the money trades comes from institutional investors, with the betting market, where most of the money traded comes from recreational bettors, who base their betting decisions on things that are quite far away from rationality and that have more to do with their “feelings”. That is, if even in the financial markets Behavioral Finance studies have proved that investors decisions aren’t rational and therefore the market efficiency is quite questionable, what can we say of the betting markets, where the percentage of bettors taking irrational decisions is likely much higher.
- On average closing odds are efficient because there is smart money out there balancing the bets of dumb money of the more recreational bettors. Shouldn’t it be for the smart money, closing odds would be probably very inefficient. My point is that many times the flow of this dumb money into the market is so big that odds cannot be balanced by the smart money, what creates inefficient closing odds. I’m sure many of you reading this article have seen several times certain odds at the market close that you were convinced were far from efficient.
- Sometimes we can see late sharp odds movements, even in liquid markets, that are not justified by any fresh piece of new flowing into the market. That is, when we see a 1.90 price available 5 minutes before the kick off moving to 2.0 at the close without any news coming out…. Do you think that the 2.0 price is more efficient than the 1.90? I don’t think so.
- The market close is the time of maximum efficiency because all the public information is over the table and therefore odds adjust based on that info. However, in my opinion, it’s not only the possession of the information what makes a punter or tipster being skilful. It’s the way they interpret that info what makes some of them stand out on the rest. There are many great sports journalists, with access to the best information possible, who have tried as tipsters with disastrous results. I am sure there are many tipsters who can have in their hands a positive profit expectancy even if they tip at market close prices, because they excel at valuing the information they possess. The possession of the information is a necessary but not sufficient condition to win money in the long run. It’s the analysis of that info what makes the difference.
If we believe that the closing price doesn’t always represent the true price, theoretically and having previously removed the Pinnacle margin, we can decompose the ROI a bettor is able to achieve in 2 factors, the ROI from the tipped price to the closing price and the ROI from the closing price to the “true” price:
Real ROI = (1+ROI from tipped price to closing price) x (1+ROI from closing price to true price) -1
Let’s give an example. A tipster tips at 1.92 and the closing odds are 1.85. Now, let’s assume that the true odds are (having removed the Pinnacle margin) 1.80. The ROI expectancy of this bet is:
(1.92/1.80-1) = 6.67% = (1.92/1.85) x (1.85/1.80) -1 = (1+3.78%) x (1+2.78%) – 1
The ROI of those tipsters who normally tip near the market close will be basically the ROI from the close price to the true price. Those tipsters could normally tip some hours in advance and achieve better results but they don’t do it because they prefer to provide their clients with picks with a lower “paper-value” but a higher “real-value”, as they take into account the liquidity offered by the bookie.
To sum up, I do think it’s important to consider the yield to closing odds when analysing a tipster’s record. In fact we are planning to introduce this factor in our Rating at Pyckio in the future. Our Rating now takes into account the factors yield, yield level stakes, number of picks, volatility and liquidity of the market. A t-test for statistical significance is behind it. Unfortunately, isn’t that easy to gather all the closing lines of the more than 6 Million picks our tipsters have submitted into our platform and match them into every pick, but this is something we hope to incorporate one day.
I do also believe that on average tipsters who beat the closing lines will generally make it better that tipsters who don’t do it. But this is very different from affirming that tipsters who don’t beat the closing lines are definitely something to avoid. I’m convinced there are tipsters who are able to select positive expectancy bets at closing or near-closing odds that do not reflect the true probabilities. Obviously, the longer the track record where the bettor/tipster real yield differs from the yield to closing odds, the more likely it is that the tipster is able to provide with a long term positive expectancy ROI.
Co-founder/CEO de Pyckio.com
Guille Navarro is a Tennis PRO Tipster specialised in the WTA. He has been succesfully tipping on women tennis, where he is a genuine expert, for several years. To date he has achieved at Pyckio a 8.8% Yield in 707 picks. In the past he has also been able to generate a +6% yield in more than 2000 bets. Guille has developed a tennis information tool (Tennislive) that he’s been using since some months ago. He affirms that it helps him achieve better results.
Only until next Sunday, January 21st, if you buy any package of 100, 500 or 1000 picks of Guille Navarro we’ll gift you 20% extra picks FREE.
-1. What do you do, apart from WTA Tennis tipping in Pyckio?
I study my 4th year of Engineering in Industrial Technologies, apart from being one of the founders and information analysts at Tennislive.es, the biggest Spanish platform providing information to bet on Tennis. I’m in charge of the Big Data development of tennis styles, a tool that will be available for our clientes very soon. Therefore, I can say I combine my studies with my work as a tipster in Pyckio and my role as an analyst in Tennislive, at the expense of some sleeping hours every day.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I’ve been betting for 5 years, soon after I came of age. It all started after a relative of mine made me aware of a known sports betting forum. I started to follow some tipsters in that forum. They had to explain all their picks, something that got my attention. This, along with the interesting tipsters contests the website organised, help me get progressively into this world. The truth is that, as a sports lover, it was difficult for me not to fall into its nets.
3. In which bookamkers do you make your bets?
Until the end of 2017 I had distributed my bets between Bet365 and MarathonBet. However, as I have increased my bankroll and due to the burdensome limitations of these bookies, I’m making some arrangements to use Pinnacle Sports and some asian bookies exclusively. It’s very complicated to have any future nowadays betting in Spain. Only Pinnacle offers what all tipsters and punters need.
4. How did you know Pyckio?
I know Pyckio since many years ago but I cannot remember how I first got to know it. I think it was through the Pyckio social media, with some mythic videos of Axel Torres talking about Hipsters and Tipsters. I also remember having participated in a tipsters contest for Roland Garros in Pyckio, that I won, shortly after knowing this platform.
5. After being in other platforms, why did you finally end at Pyckio?
I’ve always considered that there is an incredible work behind Pyckio that no other platform has done. Moreover, in my opinion there is something that places Pyckio over the rest: it’s a very user-friendly platform. It’s really usable for both the tipster who submits his/her picks and the punter who follows the tipster. I can only have fine words with the platform I was tipping before. However, when I started testing my new method and also considering the big Betting Fund project Pyckio is conducting, I had clear that I wanted to make it here and I finally got what I was looking for, the PRO Tipster status. It’s an achievement I’m really proud of.
6. Do you watch many tennis matches?
I think I watch too many for the considerable work that I must cope with every day, but I cannot avoid it. Sometimes I appreciate when tennis is played in Australia and it is unfeasible to follow, what leaves me much more concentration and time to work. But watching games is a fundamental part of my work, so I am subscribed to TennisTV and WTA TV, where you have the possibility to watch any match you want and eliminate the non-transcendental moments of the game. I do not think that it is necessary to watch all the whole games, but being able to visualize a short time of each match, mainly in the key moments, gives me a point of sensations about the player, what is very valuable for a tipster.
7. What kind of information do you take into account to determine your picks?
Over the years, first tipping under the pseudonym Enepicks on another website and now as Guille Navarro in Pyckio, I have discovered that any type of information, even the least relevant news, is necessary in your analysis. Any type of medical time out received by the players, past injuries, the physical charge, their feelings and personal sensations, the next tournaments that they will play, the real conditions of the court… Everything is really important to keep in mind when trying to tip succesfully. However, I have to highlight two fundamental factors of my analysis above the others: my personal feelings watching the actual moment of the players, and the combination of the tennis styles that both players usually show on court, which I analyse using TennisLive Big Data. All available information is essential for betting, and with the purpose of sharing such information with punters and tipsters, my TennisLive.es project was born (with another great tipster of Pyckio, such as Adri Garcia). In this platform the user is informed of every quote from tennis players and summaries of every match or statistical data that can help you in your tennis bets.
8. Do you have any method?
Yes, and, in fact, I consider that it is impossible to be profitable, in a market like WTA, without having a method. The key to my method is to analyse all the games without seeing the odds set by the bookies. Within this analysis and following some important weights I set up personally, I value the options of each player considering their quality, state of form, personal feelings about how they are playing in the last days/weeks, quotes, fatigue, adaptation to court conditions and profitability in similar conditions, profitability against opponents´ tennis style (calculated with the Big Data of game styles), future targets in the calendar, and any injury information that may affect the match.
With my range of possibilities for each tennis player, I make the comparison with the established and settled odds from the bookies, and now is when, within certain margins, I can determine in which matches, according to my method of analysis, there is value or there is not.
9. Why did you specialize in the WTA? What are the differences between tipping on WTA and doing it on ATP?
Before digging into the differences, I would like to emphasize that at the beginning I predicted both markets, but mainly in ATP. However afterwards, well because I think it is necessary to cover a single market to have more time to analyse so deeply as I like, well because the WTA circuit gave me better results and because I prefer to watch the female tennis, my specialization in WTA was complete. This does not remove that, as a service analyst at Tennislive, at the end I manage information and data of the ATP circuit, so, sometimes, with important information, I could tip on the male circuit too.
For me there are two main differences between both circuits, in betting terms:
In the first place, and what I think is the most complicate part for many punters and tipsters, the reality is that most of them cover the WTA circuit coming from the ATP. I think few understand that, even if it is tennis, it could be considered almost a different sport. In women’s tennis, the service is a much weaker weapon than in men, and when a break in ATP is half a set, in WTA is almost the same as nothing. That makes the matches much more irregular (or trolls as people prefer to call it) and with many more alternatives. To see how many times you’re “serving for green” and finally you lose is mentally very hard for the tipster. Finally, something as simple as not understanding that in WTA tennis, a break is a minimum distance compared to ATP, makes most tipsters not to understand the excitement, surprises and the drama that I love from the female circuit.
The fact that the service is much less relevant in WTA, makes the playing styles of each tennis player more relevant in terms of deciding the matches, and that is where a tennis analyst has much more “power” to take advantage of the bookies. While in ATP, there are many players who do not let you play your game and force you to decide the match in 2-3 details during the game or even in tie breaks, in 99% of the WTA matches both tennis players could propose “their tennis” and by the end the one that best performs her plan is the one who finally uses to win. As an example, regardless of whether the plan that Albert Ramos could prepare against Isner, if the American has a decent day at his service, considering that 2 out of 3 services will be aces, there is no plan that matters, and the main thing that would decide the match would be small details and personal concentration of the players, not tennis, which is what I like to analyse.
As the service is much less important, in the WTA we see “more surprises” than in ATP, more alternatives, and in my opinion, more options to find value.
10. To date you have achieved a 8.8% Yield (8.5% Yield Level Stakes) in 707 Picks. What Yield/ROI do you expect to maintain in the long run?
It’s not easy to set a goal like this, especially when you carry a range of picks not too wide as mine, with which you cannot say if luck has helped. I am optimistic, mainly because with my previous working method, much simpler, less specialized in a specific market and with fewer statistical sources and injuries to tip, I managed to offer a 6.3% ROI in more than 2100 picks (ATP/WTA). I am confident in keeping my new improved method between 8.5% and 10% of profitability in a liquid and demanding market such as WTA tennis.
11. How important is for you to beat Pinnacle Sports closing lines?
The importance is high, because it is a clear sign that you are winning against the market, and there is not a better proof of the value that your analysis brings than winning against the mass of gamblers. My main goal is that my customers can take without problems the odds that I send, something that in WTA is not a big problem if you wait some time from the odds departure.
12. What’s your opinion about live betting?
I have always been very suspicious of live betting, not only as a tipster but also as a bettor. Personally, I like that my service does not require a dependence to the notifications from the customers perspective, as It is the case for a live “service”. Logically, there are many situations during the game in which you can see injuries or changes in the match “status” that can give you a noticeable advantage over the bookies, but I do not think a tipster service should sell that. It’s really complicated to follow the tipster with the same or similar odds. Perhaps with the new techniques of Autobetting that some platforms are developing it would make sense. Personally, I do very few live bets and live picks, but it is as valid as any other opinion, so I respect “the Kings of Live betting”… even though I wouldn’t hire their services.
13. Do you think that the tipsters should offer a close service to their clients?
Since I started my work as a tipster I have always tried to put great effort to attend any queries from my clients or Twitter followers (@Enepicks) and I think this is something vital for them in order to trust me. Apart from Twitter I also have a Telegram account @tennisl1ve. Anyone can ask me any doubts about my service, my picks or simply about tennis.
14. Any message to your potential subscribers?
I am aware that not many have been able to follow my tips as a Free tipster at Pyckio, so I encourage everyone who is looking for a WTA tennis tipster service to take advantage of the great possibility offered by Pyckio to follow a tipster and receive their punctual free picks. In this way you can discover the way of working that has led us to reach such great results during this period of time. This is already my fourth season tipping as premium tipster and every day that passes I feel more confident with my work, as I have showed during more than 700 picks in Pyckio.
Promotion valid only until next Sunday, January 21st!!
On Tuesday, July 25th, the followers of our PRO Tipster marbel received several picks. 4 of them were picks for the match Camelia Begu – Caroline Garcia and three of them were submitted when the game had already started, being marbel fully aware of the situation and trying to take advantage of it. These picks were Free picks recevied by all his followers, not only his subscribers.
At Pyckio Tennis matches are closed 30 minutes before the estimated starting time, although in exceptional cases, when the games start well behind schedule, they remain open at Pyckio for some minutes. When this happens, we a posteriori delete manually these picks introduced by any Tipsters when the match was in play.
marbel was our ranked no. 2 Tipster and his statistics were really outstanding. However, we cannot allow that one of our PRO Tipsters, who are supposed to have an extra degree of proffesionalism, ethics and honesty, tries to take advantage of such a circumstamce. Therefore, once we knew the facts, we decided to eliminate the marbel account in our platform, so he is not a PRO Tipster at Pyckio anymore.
We are conscious that getting rid of our ranked 2 PRO Tipster has economic consequences for us, but we have a duty to our customers and users. Reputation is key for us. Since Pyckio went online we have always strived to be as serious, ethical and rigorous as possible, in a world, the sports betting one, that is not characterized by such qualities precisely.
Obviously, we have contacted all our marbel customers to offer them the best solution possible.
Even taking into account that a Tipster’s statistics are the main element to be analyzed by any punters trusting a third party, there are other factors that should be considered in order to improve the selection process and minimize mistakes while deciding which Tipster to trust. This is what we have called “Tipster’s Manual of Style”, which is focused mostly on the communication from Tipsters towards their followers or subscribers, whatever platform is used to send their regular picks, own blog / web, or social media.
We think the best Tipsters are the ones that:
- Are aware of the difficulty of making a profit betting, not giving the impression of being excessively confident. Being confident about beating the market and make a profit long term is acceptable, and very different from excessive confidence. Unfortunately, it is very common to find the latter in our industry. We recommend you to run away from Tipsters trying to give you the feeling that it is easy for them to win any bet, or give you assurances that they can easily make a profit in the short term. Expressions such as “we are sure that this month we will catch up with losses” or “very soon our trend will improve dramatically” indicate that either the Tipster ignores the realities of this industry, or he wants to sell you his services no matter what.
- They know that long term success is not based on “being right” but on finding inefficient odds. Easier said than done, but this is the key to make a constant profit. The best Tipsters in the market know that betting is a “probability game” whose secret doesn’t lay on being right or wrong about a bet. Many of them take all the credit when they win a bet, and some even accept the responsibility when missing one. However, it is almost impossible to control all the factors involved in a sport event. It is the work of a tipster to find “a certain value” in each bet, something that can only be observed after analyzing the statistics of a long enough sample of previous bets.
- They do not focus on specific short term results, as they know that in the short term the luck factor becomes extremely important. It is always a bad sign when a Tipster is mentioning too often the good results of their latest day, week or month picks. In Pyckio we do always a good marketing of our Tipsters PRO, but without focusing too much on the short term results. Based on our experience, the best Tipsters are usually the most humble and discreet, the ones that are aware of the difficulty of maintaining good results in a sustainable way.
- When they decide to explain a pick, they are doing it with quality arguments. It is not always necessary to give an extensive explanation when selecting a pick. However, if a Tipster chooses to do so, it is very important to focus on the quality of the reasons for the pick choice. Always beware if a Tipster is not giving specific details, including only information that is public in the market (thus, already reflected in the odds). The best explanations are the ones that include information that is not yet known or public, or the ones that give a reasoned personal opinion to justify a higher or lower odd. In other words: “what important factor do I know for a fact, or what’s my personal view on the matter, that the market should be taking into account?”
In summary, if you are thinking about trusting a Tipster, in addition to audited past statistics, it is advisable to analyze its external communication in order to select the right one for you. If one particular Tipster is often bragging about specific wins, gives too much importance to short term, provides vague and not specific information about their choice of pick or is not looking for inefficient odds (too focused on hit and miss), you’d better think twice before subscribing. If you follow this advice, this will minimize your mistakes in the long term in selecting the right Tipster.
We will obviously take into account all those aspects in the selection process of Tipsters for our Investment Fund.
oliverom is a Basketball Tipster who submits hundreds of picks every month in a great variety of competitions. He’s been betting and analysing data to find inefficient odds for more than 10 years. He works with mathematical models fed by quantitative and qualitative variables (absences, last matches, odds movements, objectives…). If you are a bettor who can place a high number of bets every day, the return on capital your bankroll will experience can be amazing if you follow oliverom picks.
(Only until next Monday, May 15th, if you buy any picks package of oliverom we’ll gift you 30% of extra picks. If you don’t want to buy his picks just follow him here to receive up to 2 Free picks per week. We remind you that you can swap your picks to other PRO Tipsters 1 month after your purchase.
-1. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
It was around 2005, when I discovered the Betfair Exchange platform. I was impressed to see so many odds related to each other and valued by their own users. In that moment I thought there should be correlation errors and I started to develop different models in search of surebets, even though I haven’t read anything about it. This experience caused my betting learning experience to be different as I didn’t start betting as a game but in search of specific factors, that for me were like solving an equation.
2. How did you know Pyckio?
I didn’t know very much about the tipster concept and I wasn’t interested on it either. I had always clear that you can generate more profits betting rather than selling your tips (obviously if you are a long term winner), but it’s true that most of webpages or sector professionals end up linked to the tipster phenomenon in one or another form. If I remember rightly I read about Pyckio on the news. When I tested it I was pleasantly surprised by the simplicity to introduce picks and access other tipsters’ information. It’s a very user friendly site that lets you have a track record of your statistics. Moreover, in that moment the “Rating” concept was quite new and a great success.
3. You submit a high number of picks every month. Do you have any method/system to find so many value picks in so many different competitions?
Obviously the critical issue is trying to find value in every pick. Once your method shows effectiveness, you have to develop a work methodology to quantify it at all levels. In that way you get to create a calculation routine for every pick and get to be more quick and accurate in the long term.
When the way you come out with every pick is automated, it’s much more easier to find the value and generate many more monthly bets and therefore rotate your bankroll further. But I need time to do it, never less than 5-6 hours per day.
4. What kind of information does your model take into account?
50% of the value of a pick is generated through statistics; 30% via external valuations such as the season stage (playoffs, mid-season, relegation), absences of relevant players, influence of the home factor, odds movement… etc. And 20% is intuition. In any sport there are too many factors to be measured. This causes that many times we see repeated patterns that made us doubt.
External valuations are the most difficult to quantify and those where I have devoted more time for years. It’s not easy how to measure them. How do we quantify the effect when one team is playing to save from relegation and another one plays for nothing?
I always use he intuition factor to discard a bet, but never to believe that I can find value in a bet when the numbers say there is not.
5. Do you watch the Basket games?
I try to watch as many games of different competitions as possible. You can always learn something, some concepts about that league you don’t excel at. And you can also read a lot about what it’s written of those matches. Nowadays you can read the games previews in nearly any language. Information is key in sports betting. Having it and pricing it is imperative.
6. As of today (12 May 2017) oliverom accrues a 6.5% Yield in 3052 picks. These are impressive stats. Do you think you can maintain this figure in the long run?
Honestly I am constantly implmenting improvement systems. I think most of bettors keep on making mistakes with much more intensity than what people think. I know, from the simulations I make, that there is an important room for improvement and I do not only expect to maintain that level but also raising it. However, I prefer not to mention it not to raise expectations.
7. Which is your staking method? Your real Yield is higher than your Yield LS. What’s the reason?
Well, surprinsingly and unlike many others, mi staking isn’t developed to generate higher profits. My model uses the stake exclusively to cushion the bad streaks and this makes the positive stages to be affected too. During the upward trends the Yield LS is higher than the real Yield while in the negative runs the contrary occurs. That is, in my model it’s a good synthom that the Yield LS is lower than the real Yield.
8. Your average odds is quite high (2.46 now) and you’ve got a 26.1% Yield (+19.1% Yield LS) in the 774 picks of the highest odds range (>3.50). These are impressive figures. Why do you think your model produces such great results here?
I don’t think it’s something particular of my model. If you have the ability to find value odds, the value is always superior at the highest odds. Let’s consider a price of 1.20 and our analysis tells us that there is value above 1.05. The maximum Yield we could achieve long term is around 15%. A higher Yield isn’t possible. However, at higher odds the Yield is always higher if you find value. The negative point is that, like when you leverage with stocks or FX, if you’re not able to find value, the losses will be also bigger.
9. Any message to your potential and current subscribers?
Surely the advantage of my service is that the bankroll rotation is high. One subscription is really an investment to achieve results and the rotation is directly linked to the return on capital.
Another important factor is the confidence provided by more than 3,000 picks. The luck factor, the variance than could have influenced the sample size, has nearly dissapeared. Moreover, if we take into accoun that my tips are based mainly on algorithms, we can affirm there aren’t human factors that can alter the results for the future. The strategy is the same, what generates confidence and stability.
Promotion valid only until next Monday, May 15th!!
Today we are announcing the introduction of a change to the algorithm that calculates our Tipster Ratings at Pyckio. We know there will be tipsters who will be harmed by these changes and therefore won’t like this modification. However, our intention is to make our tipster evaluation as representative as possible of the quality and skills of the tipsters themselves. Moreover, our new Rating has been designed taking into account our future Sports Betting Fund that will feed on Pyckio tipsters/analysts to place its bets. In fact, our new Rating includes bet liquidity as a factor, something vitally important to manage a portfolio that has sports wagers as an asset.
One of the motivations that has made us change our rating is the aggressive and chaotic staking policies of some tipsters, carried out with the intention of artificially manipulating our Rating. We can see this with the following two examples:
Case 1: One Tipster makes 400 bets with an average stake of 2. He reaches a 3% yield. Afterwards he suddenly starts making stake 10 bets. Each of these new set of bets is going to weigh 5 times more on his aggregate yield than the previous ones. If the tipster experiences a good run in a small amount of bets – something which is quite possible – he can raise his yield from 3% to 10%.
Case 2: One tipster reaches the 500 bets figure with an average stake of 8 and a 15% yield. To “protect” this yield he starts making stakes 1 or 2. In this way, even though the tipster’s results with his new staking policy aren’t positive, his 15% yield isn’t going to drop too much as the losses of the new bets have a small impact on the global results. Therefore, the tipster can reach 1000 bets with a relative high yield, even though their results in this second stage have been poor.
In 2015 we introduced the “Level Stakes Yield” ratio in our algorithm to compute not only the tipster real stakes but also their flat state ones. However, this does not completely correct the practices of some tipsters who try to manipulate their Rating with their stakes. Moreover, in practice, most bettors do take into account the odds to decide their stake, as the Kelly method suggests. That is, even though a Tipster always does level stakes and therefore recommends the same stake at odds of 1.25 or 8.0, in general bettors don’t do that; the higher the odds the lower the stake and vice versa, in a way that the profit target of every bet doesn’t vary too much. For that reason, in our new Rating system, different stake strategies are taken into account in a way that manipulation is virtually impossible. It doesn’t mean that you cannot eventually do higher stakes than average when you’ve got confidence in a bet but that a staking policy drawn to manipulate our rating will penalise you.
Aditionally our new rating includes the following factors:
- The number of picks submitted by the Tipster now has a slightly higher weight than before.
- The time the tipster has been tipping. That is, between 2 tipsters with the same yield and number of picks, the tipster who has built his record in six months will have a higher rating than the one who did it in one or two. Our data confirms to us that the probability of a tipster who has achieved good results being due to luck is higher if the record has been obtained in a short period of time. This is logical as if you don’t filter the number of picks you make it more difficult to find value odds.
- The liquidity of the matches where the tipster tips. All else being equal, the higher the liquidity the higher the rating, as the odds drop for the punter is lower for more liquid fixtures and vice versa. To measure liquidity we factor the money Pinnacle lets us bet at the moment the tipster submits his pick. The liquidity offered by Pinnacle depends on both the type of market and the time until the kick off. It could happen that a Premier League match has low liquidity because the tipster sent his pick right after the odds have gone out or a Handball game having high liquidity because the pick was sent a couple of hours before the start.
To sum up, these are the changes that affect our Ratings:
1. Results under different staking strategies are considered.
2. The number of picks gains importance.
3. We take into account the time the tipster has been tipping.
4. Liquidity of the picks submitted is considered.
We’ve carried out many simulations that prove that our new rating better predicts the future results of our tipsters.
In any case, we’ll always require min. 500 picks and a min. 4.5% Yield LS to become a PRO Tipster.
According to these guidelines the perfect tipster would be one with a high Yield, who has submitted a high number of picks during a longer time frame, who follows sound staking management and who provides high liquidity tips. If you are a tipster at Pyckio, keep on focusing on finding value odds and do not get crazy with your stakes. Please always think how a fund management professional would manage a portfolio. Moreover, please be advised that if you do it well we will monitor you and you could collaborate as an analyst of our Sports Betting Fund.
If you want to prove your betting skills as a Tipster at Pyckio, here are a list of guidelines you should consider following to generate, as a PRO TIpster, the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. Ultimately, it all comes down to do things well and reassuring your picks’ followers. This practices are our opinions that we think every good tipsters should follow:
1. Use your Stake reasonably
Each tipster may use different methods, but please always use common please. If you are going to use a wide stake range (from 1 to 10), it should be because the odds are also very different. Tipping a stake 10 at 5.0 odds and a stake 1 at 1.25 odds doesn’t make any sense; the “real stakes” curve line shouldn’t distance too far from the “level stakes” one. Your main aim should be to provide value with your stake management rather than doing it with the objective of rasing the number of picks, and our Rating artificially. When the difference between the “real stakes” yield and the “level stakes” yield is very high, something is wrong. Please be aware that we are changing our algorithm shortly to prevent tipsters from manipulating their stake management and affecting their ratings artifficially.
2. Do not make multiple picks in the same match on a constant basis
Betting on both a player/team to win and the over games/goals does make sense because they are different bets; however, we cannot say the same about betting on Chelsea and Chelsea-1. If you do it sporadically, when you think the value is huge, this is perfect. We cannot accept it when you do it as a norm, to boost the number of picks that count for the rating.
3. Maintain some regularity in the number of picks you submit every month
Obviously, the number of fixtures in a given competition varies from month to month, as well as the number of matches where a tipster is able to “perceive value”. That is, it can be normal that one month a tipster submits 50 picks and 100 picks the following month, but, doing 300 picks in one month and 50 in the next means he has changed something. In this regard, making frequent stops which are not due to the absence of matches in the competition isn’t a good practice as it generates distrust in the bettors following the tipster.
4. Do not publish your picks “too early”
If we want the real stats of the bettor who follows the tipster to be similar to the stats published by the latter, it is not advisable to publish “too early”, such as when the bookies odds has just come out. This can cause the Tipster published stats can be quite different (and obviously worse) than their followers. We know it’s not easy, but the tipster should find some equilibrium: do not do near-closing lines because the value might have evaporated but do not publish too soon either.
5. Do not over-bet and do not raise your stakes in your bad streaks
It’s without doubt in the bad runs when the good tipsters arise. If you see that a tipster starts to submit many more picks than normal or raises his stakes to recover from a bad streak run away!!
6. Do not submit picks in multiple competitions
It’s already very tough to win money betting and it’s even harder when a tipster doesn’t have a focus and tips on many different competitions. With some exceptions, as having a mathematical model, it’s very difficult to have the time to study and analyze many leagues and provide long term profitable picks in all of them. We suggest following tipsters who have a focus on only one or very few competitions.
7. Do not submit an extremely hign number of picks every month
As mentioned above and with the exception of those having an automatic/matematical model (and let’s be honest, it’s quite exceptional) you should be suspicious of tipsters who launch several hundreds of picks every month. It’s very difficult to find value in a high percentage of the matches played. We now have “manual filters” so that tipsters who submit 400-500-600 picks per month will now take more time before they become PRO Tipsters, even if they comply with our 4.25 minimum rating requirement. Our experience is that the probability of a tipster who makes hundreds of tips monthly underperforming is much higher than normal.
8. Give priority to the liquid markets
There are great bettors out there in fairly liquid competitions such as minor football divisions or challenger and ITF Tennis tournaments. These are markets where the ability to find value can be higher, as punters can have more information than the bookies. However the real money bets the bookies admit is also much lower and the odds drift we can see when a tipster with many followers tips in these low liquid markets is much more aggressive. Therefore, there can be phenomenal bettors in these markets, but it doesn’t mean they are great tipsters, as the real odds of those following the tip are very inferior to the odds published by the tipster. In general, it’s preferable to tip on liquid competitions, even though the yield is lower; the real yield of the bettor is going to be much closer to the published yied of the tipster.
9. Do not suddenly change your strategy
If you are, for example, a Tennis tipster who used to tip high odds and after a bad run you start making low odds, something is not going well. If you are specializing in finding value at Football draws and you start making overs, something is happening. These sort of sudden changes make your followers mistrustful of you. The probable outcome is a sharp decrease in your results. Stick yo your strategy and try to improve it, but don’t change it due to a recent bad streak.
10. Do not make excuses when your results aren’t good
In general tipsters only speak about bad luck when their results aren’t good. In the long run the luck factor tends to even itself out, as the good and the bad luck compensate each other. Bettors don’t like the tipster they follow to constantly make excuses when losing bets. The good tipsters keep quiet and accept that sometimes luck will play on his favour and sometimes against.
To sum up, don’t only have to achieve a good set of stats (Yield and number of picks) to be a good Tipster. This is necessary but not sufficient on its own. You should also comply with the major part of these “10 commandments” if you want to generate the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. If you become a PRO Tipster but do not follow these commandments you arent likely to sell many picks ;-).