Now you don’t have to worry!! You can take your holidays without having to consume the picks you bought of any of our Tipsters PRO. From today you will be able to stop your Tipsters PRO’s subscriptions for a maximum of 14 days. Yes, a maximum of 14 days per each stop. You will be able to make 1 stop if you buy a 100 picks package, 2 stops for 200 picks packages and 3 stops for 500 picks packages. And if you buy several picks packages of one or more tipsters, the total number of picks will be computed. These are our current Tipsters PRO. So come on and enjoy the beach!!
From today, if you buy any of our Tipsters PRO packages, you will be able to swap your pending picks for those of any Tipster PRO at any time. You will be able to do it yourself in the Settings menu at Pyckio. Yo can make as many changes as you want.
Our aim is for you to change to another Tipster PRO when you aren’t satisfied with the results achieved or when the number of picks sent by your initial Tipster PRO reduces due to seasonal factors, as is happening now in Football. It’s important you don’t confuse a bad run, that is the result of variance and that even the best world bettor will suffer, from a more in-depth issue that has made you lose the confidence in the tipster.
June 17 2015, 19:11 ·
by Daniel Mateos ·8 Comments
Javier Martin (cardiffenio) is one of our Football PRO Tipsters. Up to now (17 June 2015) he has achieved a 8.7% yield in 697 picks, with a remarkable controlled risk profile. cardiffenio is a professional bettor who moved from Spain to Cardiff to work in the sports betting industry. He only tips in some few Football competitions, such as La Liga, Argentina and Scotland.
1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Football?
At the moment I spend my time exclusively on gambling. I am not a highroller but I earn enough money for my expenses and even save a bit. Tipping can be a good complement to increase the amount of fix earnings. I live in the UK since March 2014, although I lived here between 2008 and 2012. It is a good country for a gambler: there are no taxes on winnings and there are more bookies available than in other countries of Europe.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I started arbing in 2006 and soon I realized that if there was an arb available was due to some mistake in the market, so started studying which side could be the one to bet on. Soon I applied for an Odds Compiler job and they picked me despite my lack of knowledge back then.
3. How did you know Pyckio?
I read some books by Joseph Buchdahl and he was the one who implemented the rating system in this website. I like its scientific focus. I also make some investments with other people tips and is something that has been profitable in the last years.
4. You only tip in some few Football leagues. Why?
It is not easy to beat the market in many leagues, so the best is to focus in some leagues you know well and avoid bets in leagues you didn´t study well. Maybe I would have time to study some more leagues, but I wouldn´t be able to keep up with the work every week, and would be too stressing at the end.
5. Do you watch the football games?
I only watch Spanish League and Champions league, but my method doesn´t need the info you get from watching matches. I study team and player stats. I used to watch all the spanish matches in the past and even if you get to know all the teams in deep, you don´t end up doing better bets than I can do at the moment.
6. What kind of information do you use to generate your picks?
I use match stats, there are companies that make a summary of the matches in a series of data like “crosses to the box”, “shots”, “divided balls”, etc and those numbers can be used to determine who deserved to win the match. The final result can be different to that deserved result, but this last one will let you know what the difference between the team was and will let you predict future matches better. Also, you need the motivation of the teams and injuries, etc. to calculate the most perfect odds possible and calculate the value of the different selections.
7. Can you tell us something about your staking policy?
To calculate the stakes I use the Kelly Criterion, which is based in the theorical value of the bet, your bankroll and the confidence you have in the selection. For example if you have a bet with value 5% and a confidence of 100% the stake will be similar to a bet with 10% value and confidence of 50%. You can have lower confidence in matches where you still are unsure about the lineups, injuries, etc.
8. In which bookies do you best most? At the moment I stake most of my money in www.samvo.com, it is a website that compiles the best prices of the asian bookies, and is registered in the UK. I am not sure if it´s available in the rest of europe but there are other similar websites that are similar.
9. Any message to the punters who are thinking about buying your picks?
In the betting world you can never guarantee winnings (except with arbing), and if anybody promises you that probably is because he didn´t bet enough years. But I can assure that all my bets are based in my own idea and that I think there is value on them, and this can help many bettors who want to invest in gambling. It also can prove helpful for starters, as they could calculate their bets and compare them to the ones I place, trying to understand where our differences come from and comparing the results at the end.
June 10 2015, 23:14 ·
by Daniel Mateos ·2 Comments
I often hear or read comments that show surprise at the odds a bookmaker has set for a particular sporting event. Of course, bookmakers will make errors at times, especially those who are the first to set prices before the market is fully formed. But generally speaking, it isus as bettors collectively whose are those that set the odds, not the bookmakers.
Individual odds, or prices, are nothing more than an equilibrium price that is formed by matching the supply and demand [for bets] from punters. Betfair Exchange is the clearest example of a true market. On Betfair, by introducing the bets they are willing to place/lay and at corresponding odds (“supply and demand”), a market price is formed. Other bookies or betting houses are not markets as such. They determine their own odds. But deep down they cannot escape the fact that they are part of a global market and that they have to adjust their prices in response to evolving events. Bookmakers have different strategies to set their odds, but at no point can they go against the market.
There are some bookies that call themselves “the brave” bookmakers. These are the first to publish their odds, which can often leave them exposed. Generally, the odds offered in early markets are the most inefficient, those that will be furthest away from the odds available by the start of the sporting event. However, it is necessary to recognise that these betting houses are not really that “brave”. These bookies are aware that the risk of issuing mispriced odds is high and therefore they normally don’t accept too much money at these odds. They also adjust their prices rapidly and significantly in response to supply and demand in these early markets, even though these [early] bets that they receive are of little importance. Furthermore, the overround margins that tend to apply in early markets are usually higher in order to protect the bookie from this overall greater level of uncertainty.
Being faced against the best punters provides the bookie with a good opportunity to identify mispriced odds and discover value bets, especially if they can target punters whose bankroll is not too high, given that the house is going to accept all or a high percentage of the stake. These types of bets are termed “early bets” on the betting scene. It is important to distinguish between the punter who is able to take advantage of these odds with their personal account in order to win money from the tipster who simply records such odds as part of their track record. The former is totally legitimate and reflective of reality, but the latter scenario is not necessarily a fair representation of reality because the percentage of this tipster’s followers who will be able to take such prices can be very limited; the variation in odds between bookies can be very wide.
On the other side of the equation are the bookies who wait until the market is reasonably formed before they start offering prices; that is, until several bookmakers are also offering prices. By considering the existing odds in the market place, the profit margin that they can add on, and the bets they are likely to receive, these bookies appear to be carefully setting their own odds. In general, bookies don’t have teams of mathematicians analysing whether such and such a price is correct or not. It would be very costly for them to do so and impossible to analyse the probability of the thousands of sporting events that take place on a daily basis.
Besides, as their name suggests in Anglosaxon terms (bookmaker), their role is to manage their risk book… Which, for example, might mean they believe that the true odds of Madrid beating Barcelona are lower than 1.80. But if they receive lots of bets on Madrid to win, they would have to maintain those prices so that the odds of the opposing position (draw or Barcelona) stay high and balance out this risk. Although they might have a definite view or slant towards the outcome of a particular result, in general the bookmakers manage risk and do not try to predict what the odds should be with precision from a statistical view.
What is the conclusion that I wish to draw? That a large portion of the prices set (above all in the most liquid markets in which the most bets are placed) are those that the market realistically determines; that is, determined by the bettors and not the bookies. The bookmakers can make mistakes when the market is not yet formed in early markets. But after that it is the actions of punters that really determine where prices will head and what the fair, equilibrium odds might be.
This is very relevant for the most serious bettors… if the more recreational punters (which represent the vast majority) place bets with a particular bias (for example, favouring the Overs market rather than the Unders market) this can create inefficiencies in the market place, which one can take advantage of. When a punter bets against the house, he has to overcome their rounding [profit] margin, which is not something easy in the long-term.
But it is also true that prices somehow form from the “wisdom of the crowd” and if we are more intelligent than the crowd, the house’s edge can be diminished and in the long run we can make money. However, things are not so easy because the crowd doesn’t only consist of recreational gamblers. Professional gamblers also form part of the crowd, and although they only represent a small portion of all bets placed, they are there betting significant sums of money that help form this market and move prices.
Pyckio is not a bookmaker, but we speak with first-hand knowledge because we have had almost 2 million tips placed in real-time with one bookmaker (Pinnacle Sports). Namely, we understand the public’s betting patterns and we know where the inefficiencies in the market lie. For example, we know how much more is bet on the Over goals than the Unders market, what is most important, where it is easiest or hardest to make money… If you have read the article well perhaps you will imagine where… although you won’t even be able to imagine the extent of the differences!! Perhaps we’ll let you know in future
On next Friday it will start the Copa America, that will be played in Chile. We’ve organised a Tipping competition at Pyckio with great prizes for the top 50 Tipsters. All Pyckio.com registered users will be able to participate for Free. If you don’t have an account in Pyckio yet, sign up here. It’s very easy and quick. Good luck!!
David Minigan (dminigan) is our Tipster PRO in Baseball. Up to now (18 May 2015) he has generated a 10.3% yield in 562 bets. He makes his picks with the help of a Mathematical model he has worked on for many years. He is a Maths professor in an England university and he decided to apply his statistics expertise to sports betting.
(Notice written on June 3 2015: Please be advised that dminigan has stopped tipping at Pyckio)
1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Baseball?
I was born in Sweden but I work as an Applied and Computational Mathematics Professor in an English University.
2. How did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I was not really interested in sports but it was around 8 years ago when a friend of mine suggested that I apply my Maths expertise to try to win some extra money betting. At first I thought it was a crazy idea as I knew nothing about sports and betting. Now, along with my work as a Maths University professor, Sport Betting is my life :-).
3. How did you know Pyckio?
I was told about a new website where I could submit all my tips and build my betting track record. I tried a few others but Pyckio was the easiest to use and seemed much more professional. The other big plus for using Pyckio is that they pay the Tipster 2/3 of the revenue which other sites don’t do.
4. Why Baseball?
I’ve been working hard on many mathematical models in different sports and after many years I am quite sure that I have come up with a profitable model for Baseball. In other sports I haven’t been able to achieve predictive models that are profitable enough. In some sports, like Tennis, I couldn’t achieve anything like the same sort of results as with Baseball. I don’t know if it’s because Tennis is a really efficient market or because I just couldn’t figure it out. In other sports the yield I could generate with thousands of bets was positive but not as high as I wanted. I still have doubts, and I need to work more on them, but in Baseball, the results I have achieved are truly awesome.
5. Have you tried your Baseball model ex-post? That is, with real money bets?
Sure, after I find a model that produces great results I test it with real betting. And my Baseball model has by far passed this “real betting” test, in more than 3,000 bets. I can even say that the results were slightly better than what I have previously tested. The number of bets is very high, so I am very confident.
6. Do you bet real money in all your picks?
Yes, as I said I test my models with real money but only if the results achieved in my dry-run testing are good enough. Right now only my Baseball model has passed these requirements, so I only bet on Baseball at the moment. The objective is twofold, testing the model live and obviously to win money.
7. Do you watch some Baseball games?
No. I prefer to spend my time working on my models and, to be honest, it wouldn’t help much to watch the games, it’s all down to the Math.
8. Can you tell us how you build your models?
I’ve got a big database with thousands of matches and odds. I use a Statistics tool that I am very familiar with, called Matlab, in order to test and evaluate the factors that might affect the result of a match. There are some factors I think a priori could affect but the model tells me its influence is nearly zero and there are other factors I think a priori are negligible but then I see have their influence. My work is to analyze and put all this information together and test and test and test constantly to come up with the most predictive set of variables possible. The quality of the database is very important.
9. Which variables are most important in your Baseball model?
I’m sorry but I cannot give you this information. Please understand that I don’t want to give any clues that might give away my “secrets”. It has taken me many years of hard work to develop my models.
10. What are the pros and cons of sports betting with mathematical models?
Cons: There are some subjective factors that the model cannot take into account.
Pros: The model has no feelings and a negative recent performance will not affect your future results. When a Tipster has a bad run, the lack of confident can affect his judgement, perceive value where there is not, overbetting etc. A model isn’t affected by these factors.
11. What yield can a punter expect to achieve following your Baseball tips?
Right now I am quite confident to generate an 8-10% yield in the long run with thousands of bets. What I really like about my Baseball model is that using a sound stake management strategy, the risk/reward balance is very attractive. That is, looking at my past data it’s quite unlikely that if things don’t evolve as I expect for whatever reason, punters will lose a lot of money. Variance is a very important issue when creating models in sports betting. I could have even generated a higher expected yield model – raising my average odds – but it would have produced a higher variance, which would have translated into higher drawdowns in future. I have preferred to be a bit more conservative.
12. Can you guarantee to those who are thinking about buying your picks that you will make them win money?
No, stay away from tipsters who guarantee profits; they are swindlers. What I can guarantee is many years of hard work and I can affirm I am pretty confident that my model will keep on delivering good results in future. Guaranteeing and being confident are, however, very different things.
13. Could the variables your model currently uses change overtime?
First of all, if there is any change it will be small. It’s true the market might be more efficient overtime but after several years of testing I haven’t noticed any significant changes. Second, I constantly monitor and improve my model, so any change will be fixed, although obviously with some delays.
14. Which is your staking plan?
I bet from 1 to 2 units per pick, depending on the value the model perceives for each bet and the odds. In terms of money, 1 unit equals 1% of my bankroll and this is what I suggest to my followers.
15. You make many bets per day. Why so many bets?
It’s the model that determines the number of daily bets. If I submit many picks it’s because the model perceives there is value in all of them. I know once a Tipster is a PRO at Pyckio he can only submit 12 picks maximum per day. I will select the 12 highest value picks form all the model selections. I will focus on the MLB (USA), where my historical results have been slightly better.
Roland Garros starts next Tuesday, May 19, with the first matches of the qualies. We have organised a new Tipping Competition at Pyckio!! We have prizes for the top 50 tipsters of the men tournament. We’ll give 3,500€ in prizes (Cash and Free Bets)!! Here you can find all the info about the prizes and the competition rules. Participation is Free for all Pyckio registered users. Sign up here if you haven’t got a Pyckio account yet. It’s very quick and easy. You will be able to submit your picks from next Monday, may 18. Good luck!!
You can already receive personalized new picks alerts in your email inbox. From all the tipsters you follow, you will be able to select those you want to receive an email from, every time a new pick is posted. And you can also choose the sport. That is, if you follow a Tipster who makes picks in several sports you can choose to receive only an email alert of his Basketball picks, for example. You can find this option the top right Settings menu. We keep on improving Pyckio!!
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