Today we are announcing the introduction of a change to the algorithm that calculates our Tipster Ratings at Pyckio. We know there will be tipsters who will be harmed by these changes and therefore won’t like this modification. However, our intention is to make our tipster evaluation as representative as possible of the quality and skills of the tipsters themselves. Moreover, our new Rating has been designed taking into account our future Sports Betting Fund that will feed on Pyckio tipsters/analysts to place its bets. In fact, our new Rating includes bet liquidity as a factor, something vitally important to manage a portfolio that has sports wagers as an asset.
One of the motivations that has made us change our rating is the aggressive and chaotic staking policies of some tipsters, carried out with the intention of artificially manipulating our Rating. We can see this with the following two examples:
Case 1: One Tipster makes 400 bets with an average stake of 2. He reaches a 3% yield. Afterwards he suddenly starts making stake 10 bets. Each of these new set of bets is going to weigh 5 times more on his aggregate yield than the previous ones. If the tipster experiences a good run in a small amount of bets – something which is quite possible – he can raise his yield from 3% to 10%.
Case 2: One tipster reaches the 500 bets figure with an average stake of 8 and a 15% yield. To “protect” this yield he starts making stakes 1 or 2. In this way, even though the tipster’s results with his new staking policy aren’t positive, his 15% yield isn’t going to drop too much as the losses of the new bets have a small impact on the global results. Therefore, the tipster can reach 1000 bets with a relative high yield, even though their results in this second stage have been poor.
In 2015 we introduced the “Level Stakes Yield” ratio in our algorithm to compute not only the tipster real stakes but also their flat state ones. However, this does not completely correct the practices of some tipsters who try to manipulate their Rating with their stakes. Moreover, in practice, most bettors do take into account the odds to decide their stake, as the Kelly method suggests. That is, even though a Tipster always does level stakes and therefore recommends the same stake at odds of 1.25 or 8.0, in general bettors don’t do that; the higher the odds the lower the stake and vice versa, in a way that the profit target of every bet doesn’t vary too much. For that reason, in our new Rating system, different stake strategies are taken into account in a way that manipulation is virtually impossible. It doesn’t mean that you cannot eventually do higher stakes than average when you’ve got confidence in a bet but that a staking policy drawn to manipulate our rating will penalise you.
Aditionally our new rating includes the following factors:
- The number of picks submitted by the Tipster now has a slightly higher weight than before.
- The time the tipster has been tipping. That is, between 2 tipsters with the same yield and number of picks, the tipster who has built his record in six months will have a higher rating than the one who did it in one or two. Our data confirms to us that the probability of a tipster who has achieved good results being due to luck is higher if the record has been obtained in a short period of time. This is logical as if you don’t filter the number of picks you make it more difficult to find value odds.
- The liquidity of the matches where the tipster tips. All else being equal, the higher the liquidity the higher the rating, as the odds drop for the punter is lower for more liquid fixtures and vice versa. To measure liquidity we factor the money Pinnacle lets us bet at the moment the tipster submits his pick. The liquidity offered by Pinnacle depends on both the type of market and the time until the kick off. It could happen that a Premier League match has low liquidity because the tipster sent his pick right after the odds have gone out or a Handball game having high liquidity because the pick was sent a couple of hours before the start.
To sum up, these are the changes that affect our Ratings:
1. Results under different staking strategies are considered.
2. The number of picks gains importance.
3. We take into account the time the tipster has been tipping.
4. Liquidity of the picks submitted is considered.
We’ve carried out many simulations that prove that our new rating better predicts the future results of our tipsters.
According to these guidelines the perfect tipster would be one with a high Yield, who has submitted a high number of picks during a longer time frame, who follows sound staking management and who provides high liquidity tips. If you are a tipster at Pyckio, keep on focusing on finding value odds and do not get crazy with your stakes. Please always think how a fund management professional would manage a portfolio. Moreover, please be advised that if you do it well we will monitor you and you could collaborate as an analyst of our Sports Betting Fund.
We’ve launched a special promotion, whereby if you register at Bet365 via this link and you bet at least 10€ (in 1 or more bets, at any odds) we’ll gift you a 2 Months GrandMaster Subscription, valued at 240€!! The GrandMaster subscription gives you access to all the picks from many of our best Tipsters (over 40) in different sports. This promotion is only valid for new Bet365 accounts.
Once you create your new Bet365 account and bet minimum 10 €, just send us an email to email@example.com with the subject: “Bet365: your username at Pyckio + your username at Bet365″, for example “Bet365: david84 + AB123456″. Once we check it we’ll allocate the 2 months GrandMaster subscription in your account.
Moreover, Bet365 offers you a special 100% Deposit Bonus, up to 200€. You can check the bonus conditions in the Bet365 webpage of your country. Please be advised that Bet365 only doubles your initial deposit, so if you only deposit 10€ you will get 10€ more but you won’t be able to enjoy the entire bonus afterwards.
If you want to prove your betting skills as a Tipster at Pyckio, here are a list of guidelines you should consider following to generate, as a PRO TIpster, the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. Ultimately, it all comes down to do things well and reassuring your picks’ followers. This practices are our opinions that we think every good tipsters should follow:
1. Use your Stake reasonably
Each tipster may use different methods, but please always use common please. If you are going to use a wide stake range (from 1 to 10), it should be because the odds are also very different. Tipping a stake 10 at 5.0 odds and a stake 1 at 1.25 odds doesn’t make any sense; the “real stakes” curve line shouldn’t distance too far from the “level stakes” one. Your main aim should be to provide value with your stake management rather than doing it with the objective of rasing the number of picks, and our Rating artificially. When the difference between the “real stakes” yield and the “level stakes” yield is very high, something is wrong. Please be aware that we are changing our algorithm shortly to prevent tipsters from manipulating their stake management and affecting their ratings artifficially.
2. Do not make multiple picks in the same match on a constant basis
Betting on both a player/team to win and the over games/goals does make sense because they are different bets; however, we cannot say the same about betting on Chelsea and Chelsea-1. If you do it sporadically, when you think the value is huge, this is perfect. We cannot accept it when you do it as a norm, to boost the number of picks that count for the rating.
3. Maintain some regularity in the number of picks you submit every month
Obviously, the number of fixtures in a given competition varies from month to month, as well as the number of matches where a tipster is able to “perceive value”. That is, it can be normal that one month a tipster submits 50 picks and 100 picks the following month, but, doing 300 picks in one month and 50 in the next means he has changed something. In this regard, making frequent stops which are not due to the absence of matches in the competition isn’t a good practice as it generates distrust in the bettors following the tipster.
4. Do not publish your picks “too early”
If we want the real stats of the bettor who follows the tipster to be similar to the stats published by the latter, it is not advisable to publish “too early”, such as when the bookies odds has just come out. This can cause the Tipster published stats can be quite different (and obviously worse) than their followers. We know it’s not easy, but the tipster should find some equilibrium: do not do near-closing lines because the value might have evaporated but do not publish too soon either.
5. Do not over-bet and do not raise your stakes in your bad streaks
It’s without doubt in the bad runs when the good tipsters arise. If you see that a tipster starts to submit many more picks than normal or raises his stakes to recover from a bad streak run away!!
6. Do not submit picks in multiple competitions
It’s already very tough to win money betting and it’s even harder when a tipster doesn’t have a focus and tips on many different competitions. With some exceptions, as having a mathematical model, it’s very difficult to have the time to study and analyze many leagues and provide long term profitable picks in all of them. We suggest following tipsters who have a focus on only one or very few competitions.
7. Do not submit an extremely hign number of picks every month
As mentioned above and with the exception of those having an automatic/matematical model (and let’s be honest, it’s quite exceptional) you should be suspicious of tipsters who launch several hundreds of picks every month. It’s very difficult to find value in a high percentage of the matches played. We now have “manual filters” so that tipsters who submit 400-500-600 picks per month will now take more time before they become PRO Tipsters, even if they comply with our 4.25 minimum rating requirement. Our experience is that the probability of a tipster who makes hundreds of tips monthly underperforming is much higher than normal.
8. Give priority to the liquid markets
There are great bettors out there in fairly liquid competitions such as minor football divisions or challenger and ITF Tennis tournaments. These are markets where the ability to find value can be higher, as punters can have more information than the bookies. However the real money bets the bookies admit is also much lower and the odds drift we can see when a tipster with many followers tips in these low liquid markets is much more aggressive. Therefore, there can be phenomenal bettors in these markets, but it doesn’t mean they are great tipsters, as the real odds of those following the tip are very inferior to the odds published by the tipster. In general, it’s preferable to tip on liquid competitions, even though the yield is lower; the real yield of the bettor is going to be much closer to the published yied of the tipster.
9. Do not suddenly change your strategy
If you are, for example, a Tennis tipster who used to tip high odds and after a bad run you start making low odds, something is not going well. If you are specializing in finding value at Football draws and you start making overs, something is happening. These sort of sudden changes make your followers mistrustful of you. The probable outcome is a sharp decrease in your results. Stick yo your strategy and try to improve it, but don’t change it due to a recent bad streak.
10. Do not make excuses when your results aren’t good
In general tipsters only speak about bad luck when their results aren’t good. In the long run the luck factor tends to even itself out, as the good and the bad luck compensate each other. Bettors don’t like the tipster they follow to constantly make excuses when losing bets. The good tipsters keep quiet and accept that sometimes luck will play on his favour and sometimes against.
To sum up, don’t only have to achieve a good set of stats (Yield and number of picks) to be a good Tipster. This is necessary but not sufficient on its own. You should also comply with the major part of these “10 commandments” if you want to generate the maximum confidence in your followers and potential subscribers. If you become a PRO Tipster but do not follow these commandments you arent likely to sell many picks ;-).
We’ve launched a special promotion, whereby if you register at Pinnacle Sports via this link and you bet at least 10€ (in 1 or more bets, at any odds) we’ll gift you a 2 Months GrandMaster Subscription, valued at 240€!! The GrandMaster subscription gives you access to all the picks from many of our best Tipsters (over 40) in different sports.
Once you create your new Pinnacle account and bet the 10 €, just send us an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with the subject: “Pinnacle: your username at Pyckio + your username at Pinnacle”, for example “Pinnacle: david84 + AB123456″. Once we check it we’ll allocate the 2 months GrandMaster subscription in your account.
Pinnacle is the PRO bettors bookmaker par excelence. Any seriour punter cannot not have an account in this bookmaker. It will be the bookie you’ll bet most by far.
(*) When opening your account in Pinnacle you will be able to check if it’s legally available in your country of residence.
nishikori is one of our best Tipsters. He is a professional tennis bettor, who only tips on liquid markets (only ATP, no challengers) and has achieved a 11.3% yield in 815 bets up to now. Once you read this interview you will realize he definetely knows what he is talking about. He is the PRO Tipster with the highest average odds figure.
(Only until October 10th, if you buy a nishikori 500 or 1000 picks package you’ll get 20% extra picks FREE. If you don’t want to buy his picks, you can just follow him here to receive 1 FREE pick every week.)
-1. What do you do, apart from tipping on Tennis at Pyckio?
I am a profesional bettor. I am also linked to the tennis world professionally (my public job) but I prefer not to give further details. Even though I don’t have access to any type of insider information, I wouldn’t like my working enviroment to know about my tipster facet. You know this isn’t well considered and it could affect my work. That’s the reason why I’ve decided to preserve my anonymity at Pyckio.
2. How long have you been betting and how did you first get interested in Sports Betting?
I started betting many years ago, around 2005/2006, although I’ve been doing it professionally since 2013. As I‘ve been linked to the tennis world since I was a child and I like all related to numbers and statistics (I’m an economist), it was just a matter of time I started betting on tennis. At the beginning I had my ups and downs and I used to lose at the end of the year. But with time and experience I’ve been able to transform my past losses into profits.
3. Why do you want to work as a tipster if you already benefit from your real money bets?
I know this is a question commonly asked to tipsters, but the answer is easy. The reality is that it provides me with some extra money with little extra work and effort so, why not doing it? I obviously place my personal bets first, trying to affect the odds as mínimum as posible and then submit my Pyckio picks to my subscribers.
4. How did you know Pyckio?
A friend of mine talked to me about it. I’ve seen other platforms and this is the most professional one.
5. You only tip on ATP, why?
It requires me too much work to be completely updated with all the ATP players and tournaments news. I don’t have enough time to follow the WTA. I’m sure I wouldn’t get the same positive results on WTA and my ATP figures might be affected. I have an edge over the market on ATP and I wouldn’t like to put it at risk. A day has only 24 hours.
6. Do you watch the tennis matches?
I try to watch as many matches as I can, but I give priority to analysing the news and statistics. Sometimes I do both things at the same time. I focus particulary on watching matches (live or recorded) of new players that come out in the circuit to see their playing style or their mental strength.
7. What kind of information do you take into account to determine your picks?
I analyse the players form, their “mental” form or confidence, playing styles, injuries news, motivation, tournament surfaces, statistics… I don’t think this differentiate me from what most bettors and tipsters do. In my opinion the difference between the best tipsters and the rest is that the former know how to price that information. I think I excel at valuing to what extent this information is already priced within the odds. Sometimes the market overprice some news, such us players injuries, tiredness or motivation. Other times, bettors overvalue some players because they are well known, even though their form is horrible. In general, when an opinion/information on any particular game/tennis player is very widespread among bettors the value uses to be on the opposite side. And there I am, trying to get advantage of inefficient prices. My work isn’t trying to find winners; this is the way to perdition. My work consists of finding value, finding inefficient odds. There are great tennis analysts out there and most of them aren’t good tipsters. Tipping is a very difficult business. You fight against the bookie and they have the advantage, their margins. Only those who know “what is the fair price” of the public information available can win.
8. Do you have a method?
If you are asking me if I have any automatic/mathematic method to select my picks the answer is no. The way I try to get good results is focusing on the process, not on the results. That is, if I’m convinced there is value in one particular bet, I submit my pick. I really don’t care too much about my picks results in the short term, it’s the long term where you win. I am satisfied if I see the closing odds are lower than my odds because this means my pick was right, even though I lost it. As Pinnacle closing odds are the most efficient ones, if you beat them constantly it means you are providing value and there is a positive mathematical expectation in your selections.
9. (as of October 3rd 2016) you have achieved 11.3% Yield in 815 bets. These are astonishing figures. Do you expect to maintain this yield over the long run?
I think I can maintain a circa 10% yield for my subscribers in the log run. Since I bet professionally these are my yield records: +13.2% (2013), +9.4% (2014), +10.9% (2015), +11.3% (2016), in +4000 real bets overall. I cannot guarantee profits, but I’m quite confident I will continue delivering positive results.
10. Your average odds are quite high (currently 2.40), the highest from all our PRO Tipsters. Why do you like doing dogs?
I am more comfortable doing these kind of bets and I think here is where I can provide more value. Doing high odds means that the bettor who follows me has to be ready to pass through difficult runs from time to time. The probability of losing several consecutive bets in a row is higher when you bet the dogs. However, the rewards can be high for those who follow a conservative staking management strategy and don’t worry too much about the daily results.
11. Why do you do level stakes?
In my personal real bets I use a fixed profit method (the stake depends on the odds) but here at Pyckio I started doing flat stakes just for simplicity. Moreover, I’ve seen some tipsters in Pyckio who have manipulated their results somehow with their staking. In this way, with flat stakes, it’s all crystal clear to all my followers subscribers. They don’t have to investigate further if the difference between the real yield and the level stakes yield is the result of a good money management strategy or if it’s because the tipster has made aggressive staking variations with the objective of manipulating his results.
12. What’s your opinion about live betting?
I only do live betting with some “weak mind” players to protect my winning pregame bets. But to be honest, my live bets haven’t produced positive results overall but a slight loss. My opinion is that it’s very difficult to do profitable live betting unless you investigate it deeply. After considering all the news and factors that can influence a match I think I can figure out if the there is some kind of inefficiency in the pregame odds. But when the match is live, all moves so quickly, with so many factors to consider, that I personally cannot determine if the odds are fair or they aren’t, if there is value or there is not. I think a profitable live betting strategy could be devised with the use of big data and automated bets and I would love to take that challenge in the future. But right now I don’t have the time I need to do it.
13. Any message to your potential subscribers?
If you buy my picks you have a high likelihood of winning money. If you do it, follow all my picks with a conservative staking plan and do not care too much about the daily results. There will be very good runs and very bad ones too. Think of it as a long term investment. Patience will pay off.
Let me help you envision the yearly return my subscribers can expect if they follow my picks, considering I expect to deliver around 1,200 bets per year and an estimate of 1% flat stake per bet (my advice), under 3 different yield scenarios:
1) 7.5% yield. Expected return: + 90%
2) 10% yield: Expected return: +120%
3) 12.5% yield: Expected return: +150%
You should deduct the cost of my picks at Pyckio.
These estimates are conservative because they are done under a fixed bankroll strategy. If you update your bankroll daily, weekly or monthly the return will be higher due to the compounding effect.
I will be happy to answer all your questions. Just address them to Pyckio and they’ll resend them to me.
Let’s win together!!
Promotion valid only until next Monday, October 10th!!
We’ve been making great progress in our future SPORTS BETTING HEDGE FUND. Tax and legal details are being closed. The fund will be formed in a jurisdiction that permits this kind of financial products and the fund will be approved by a national financial regulator. Our objective is to create the biggest sports betting hedge fund in the world.
We will follow a mixed strategy to find long term value bets by using the recommendations of the best tipsters for each sport and competition and strategies generated internally by Pyckio based on Big Data. The analysis of Big Data will be carried out by qualified professionals part of our team.
The long term success of the hedge fund is expected to be based on detecting market inefficiencies. Bookmakers and betting exchanges set their quotes based on bets made by their clients. We know that individual clients don’t make their decisions in a rational way and that generates quote inefficiencies that can be taken advantage of, specially by using bookmakers with low margins. Also, even if bookers such as Pinnacle Sports do not limit bets from winners (it helps them fine-tune their quotes), operating through betting brokers remains a possibility.
The Hedge Fund will diversify by sports, competitions and markets. The intention is to build a portfolio of great analysts for each sport and competition we will be focusing on, and offer a variable remuneration depending on the actual results achieved though their picks. If picks are successful, (circumstance that will be based on several factors and in no case will be absent of risks), this remuneration might be higher than the amount received by selling individual picks to punters.
The due diligence process will be thorough. The Hedge Fund will be analyzing metrics such as market/competition liquidity (apart from the published picks), and carrying out a qualitative analysis including personal interviews in order to optimize the selection process.
Even if the hedge fund is not considering Live bets in a first phase, if you think you have a long term winning system or strategy in that market, with a good track record, you can show your interest through email@example.com. Any source of alpha with the potential to increase the hedge fund’s return will be analyzed.
If you are interested, assuming any possible risk which you may be aware of, you can submit your picks at Pyckio.com. We will be watching all tipsters with positive numbers, and focusing on the ones that excel in a certain competition even if their overall numbers are not good enough to give them Tipster PRO status (Tipster PRO analyst are chosen based on their overall numbers for a certain sport, not for any specific competition).
We are confident in the future success and worldwide repercussion in the sports betting sector of this Hedge Fund, and we would be delighted to valuate your contribution in case you show an express and unsolicited interest in this project.
Co-founder&CEO at Pyckio
We have introduced 2 new and important features this week at Pyckio:
1. Monthly Statistics. From now on you can see the monthly stats on a Global, Sport and Sport-Country level. Just go to your Account or the account of the tipster you want to see his/her numbers and click on “Monthly Stats”, just above the chart.
2. Tipsters PRO’s .CSV files. Now you can download the picks from all our Tipsters PRO in a .CSV file, so that you can make your own analyses. You can do it from the account of each Tipster PRO, clicking on the green top-right button and also from the Tipsters PRO page.
We keep on improving our platform and we really appreciate your feedback!!
Hi everyone! We are back with our crazy multiple bet!! We’ve bet on all the favorites on the Spanish bookie Sportium, on all the favorites of the Spain 1st and 2nd division games. We can win 500,000€!! We will distribute the potential prize among all those with a Twitter account who RT this tweet in our timeline and follow our Twitter account.
Yes, we repit, is nearly impossible… the probabilities are nearly zero. But… if it happens? Are you gonna miss it only because you didn’t make a RT?
- All users whose Twitter accounts RT the above tweet and follows our Twitter account, until May 23 2015, at 16:29 h. (GMT+2) will participate
- If we win the multiple bet the prize to be distributed among the winners will be net of ALL applicable taxes.
- Only >18 year old participants can take part and only one participation per user. A notary would manage the distribution of the prize process
- If for whatever reason Sportium doesn’t give us the prize we won’t be able to distribute it among those who have complied with our requirements
- Only one participation per Twitter account allowed.
- The participation in the distribution of this potential prize implies acceptance of these rules
We’ve got a new La Liga Tipping Competition. 500€ in William Hill Free bets will be awarded to the first 10 ranked users of the competition + the last one.
To participate you only need to have a William Hill account. If you already have one just send us an email to firstname.lastname@example.org with your username at Pyckio and your username and registered email at WH. Once we check the information is correct we’ll activate your participation in the contest.
If you don’t have a William Hill account you can create it through this link. If you do it, you deposit minimum 20€ and place one bet (min. 1 €) we’ll gift you a 1 month GrandMaster subscription valued at 46.96€, that will give you access to all the picks from all our GrandMaster tipsters. Once you open the WH account, make the deposit and place the bet send us an email to email@example.com with your username at Pyckio and your username and registered email at WH. Once we check the information is correct we’ll activate your participation in the contest and allocate the GrandMaster subscription in your account.
The competition will start on March 18th and will finish on April 24th, although you will be able to submit your picks earlier, once there are odds available.
Here you can find all the information about the competition. The winner will receive a 100€ Free Bet. And there is also a prize for the last one, who will get a Free Bet of 50€. But it’s not so easy to be the last one ;-).
Note: We receive from William Hill a fixed amount per referred user, not a percentage of the player losses
Up to now the Tipster PRO status at Pyckio was achievable at the “sport” level. That is, you could be a Tipster PRO at Football, Tennis, Basketball… and obviously all picks on the sport were computed. But from now on there can be aditionally Tipster PROs 1 or 2 categories below, at the sport-country level (i.e. Football-England or Tennis-ATP) or sport-country-competition level (i.e. Football-England-Premier league). The process so that any tipster can become a Tipster PRO in a lower category will be driven by Pyckio. If we detect tipsters with a Rating that fulfill the criteria to be considered a Tipster PRO, we’ll contact him to propose him to become a Tipster PRO only in that category.
There can be situations that will need further analysis. As an example, a tipster can reach the PRO status at Football and might be near achieving it at Football-Germany too. In these cases we’ll talk with the tipster to come up with the best solution for his potential subscribers.